MOSCOW, June 28. /TASS/. A high turnout in the early presidential election in Iran may ensure victory for the candidate from the reformist camp, ex-health minister Masoud Pezeshkian, with a runoff not ruled out, Vladimir Sazhin, a senior research fellow at the Center for the Near and Middle East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has told TASS.
The way he sees it, Pezeshkian’s success "will depend solely on the turnout at the elections."
"As Iranian analysts said, if there is a turnout of about 60-70%, it may play into the hands of reformist forces," Sazhin noted.
According to the specialist, many analytical centers in Iran single out exactly three candidates - Pezeshkian, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili, the spiritual leader's representative in the Security Council.
"Analysts say that if there is a Ghalibaf-Jalili runoff, the latter is likely to gain the upper hand. But if Pezeshkian competes with either of the two, the outcome looks unclear," the expert noted.
Sazhin also pointed out that Iran’s "hypothetically oppositionist" forces claim that the fundamentalists and radical conservatives enjoy the support of about 30-35% of the population.
"If the turnout is low, these 30-35 will make the situation more favorable for Jalili or Ghalibaf. But if the turnout is large, then the remaining 60-65%, who do not support the fundamentalists, can throw their weight behind Pezeshkian," he stated.
Iran is holding an early presidential election in connection with the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in an air crash on May 19. Of the six politicians initially approved by the Iranian Constitutional Guardians Council four have remained in the presidential race. Vice-President Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi announced on June 26 that he was withdrawing from the race in favor of the conservatives. Tehran’s mayor, Alireza Zakani followed suit on June 27. He expressed support for the two main candidates from the conservative wing, Ghalibaf and Jalili. The two other contenders for the presidency are Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a conservative and former head of the interior and justice ministries, and Pezeshkian, the sole candidate from the reformist camp.