MOSCOW, April 25. /TASS/. Allies turn away from Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, while relations between India and Pakistan worsen in the wake of a terror attack in Kashmir. Meanwhile, Washington and Tehran are still far apart on the nuclear deal. These stories have topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: White House irritated with Zelensky’s behavior
Ukraine has been losing the support of its closest allies. Washington has criticized Kiev for its unwillingness to make concessions as part of the settlement process, and European partners, too, have called on Bankovaya Street (Vladimir Zelensky’s office - TASS) to consider the possibility of a compromise. US President Donald Trump is especially irritated, as he threatened Zelensky with the loss of the whole country unless he agrees to conclude a deal immediately. The US leader stressed that it is much more difficult to engage with Ukraine than with Russia. On April 25, Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will make his fourth visit to Russia for full-fledged talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This could turn the tide toward resolving the conflict. In addition, work toward an in-person meeting between the Russian and American leaders is ongoing.
A foreign ministers meeting on Ukraine scheduled to take place in London on April 23 didn't happen, and in this light, the focus has clearly shifted, Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, observed. "Now Washington is saying openly that Kiev, not Moscow, is the main culprit for the lack of progress toward settlement. The balance has shifted," he told Izvestia.
Among other key issues, Ukraine refuses to sign a mineral deal, the expert continued. "The Trump administration’s claims to Kiev have piled up. Zelensky’s personality, too, matters, for how he behaves can now be interpreted as entrenched irresponsibility. This is how his diplomacy can be described," Vasilyev said.
Meanwhile, the rhetoric in Europe which has pledged unwavering support to Kiev over the past three years has shifted, too. According to The Financial Times, Britain, Germany, and France have been secretly pressing Kiev to give up part of its territory as they fear that, should the United States abandon the negotiating process, they would confront Moscow on their own.
Discussions on lifting sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as part of a peace deal, as reported by Politico, are yet another proof that European elites are ready to bargain, sacrificing Ukraine’s interests for a stable energy market, even as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio later denied this report.
The Europeans, albeit the positions of the European Commission and some individual countries, like Hungary, differ, are actually ready for bargaining and some form of compromise, however, they insist that Russia pays a higher price for the compromise, according to Ivan Loshkarev, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO University.
Vedomosti: Relations between India, Pakistan deteriorate after deadly Kashmir attack
Tensions have escalated between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed South Asian nations, following a deadly attack on April 22 in Jammu and Kashmir, an Indian region disputed by Pakistan. In the attack, 26 people were killed when members of the Resistance Front, an armed wing with ties to the Pakistan-based organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (banned in Russia), opened fire on a group of tourists. Three of the five suspects identified are Pakistani nationals, the Hindustan Times reported.
Despite Islamabad denying any involvement and offering its own counterclaims, on April 24, the Indian Foreign Ministry suspended the issuance of visas for Pakistani nationals, effective immediately, and announced that visas already granted would be revoked by April 27. Around 1,500 people have been detained in Kashmir, where a specialized police operation is currently underway.
In retaliation, Pakistan shut down its airspace to Indian flights and halted all trade with its neighbor. Furthermore, Islamabad voiced strong objections to India’s decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan.
Under this agreement, New Delhi has the exclusive right to utilize water from three eastern rivers, explained Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia and Pacific Region Group at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. Pakistan was granted the right to use water from three western rivers, which are critical to the nation’s agricultural and economic survival.
Boris Volkhonsky, associate professor at Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African Countries, suggested that while the use of force cannot be completely ruled out, it remains unlikely. The balance of nuclear weapons between India and Pakistan has so far acted as a deterrent, preventing the conflict from escalating into full-scale war, he noted in an interview with Vedomosti. Though isolated retaliatory actions may occur, it’s important to consider that a non-state actor has claimed responsibility for the attack.
The closure of Pakistan’s airspace has significant economic consequences for India, especially since the majority of India’s international flights to Europe and the United States transit over Pakistan, Kupriyanov explained. This could lead to substantial disruptions at Indian airports in the short term, he warned.
Vedomosti: Washington, Tehran still far from reaching deal on nukes
The United States would agree to allow Iran to develop its civilian nuclear program provided it relies exclusively on foreign-made nuclear fuel for it as part of a potential deal, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told The Free Press online news outlet. While the two sides are still far from reviving the nuclear treaty, the White House is committed to reaching a peaceful solution that would be acceptable to all, he added.
If Iran accepts the terms outlined by Rubio, it will be able to use its nuclear reactors, but its capabilities to build nuclear weapons will be blocked under a ban on its uranium enrichment. Therefore, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote, Washington proposed the UAE model under which the Arab kingdom buys nuclear fuel abroad to operate its several reactors instead of enriching uranium on its own.
The White House resorts to the sanctions policy and rhetorical maneuvers, says Lev Sokolshchik, senior researcher with the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics. This, as Trump and other hawks on Iran view it, can force Tehran to make concessions in striking a deal, the expert continues. Using the UAE model in the Iranian nuclear dossier is the underlying condition for the United States and its ally, Israel, as, in theory, this would prevent Iran from secretly enriching uranium, Sokolshchik argues. In an interview with Vedomosti, he doubted the US and Iran can strike a deal.
Iran will not agree to use imported fuel as the Islamic republic established the nuclear fuel cycle for the production of corresponding materials decades ago, said Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies. However, Tehran is willing to compromise on its nuclear program, as, first, it would like some of the sanctions pressure on its economy to be eased and, second, Iran would strongly oppose a major regional escalation and potential strikes on its nuclear facilities by the US or Israel, the expert emphasized.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev seeks allies in Global South
Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has paid a visit to South Africa and held talks with the country’s President Cyril Ramaphosa. While the official goal of the trip was to bolster bilateral relations and contribute to finding a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis, in fact, Kiev attempted to persuade one of the most influential players on the continent to take sides with it, with most African nations sympathizing more with Russia than with Ukraine. However, South Africa remembers how Moscow helped it fight against apartheid, so it did not make any reciprocal steps toward Kiev. This may be why Zelensky shortened his visit.
In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Oleg Teterin, First Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Asia and Africa Today magazine, said: "South Africa is a BRICS member, and it provides moral assistance to Russia anyway. And Zelensky is desperately looking for support now that he has been rejected by US President Donald Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Even as they cannot put it bluntly, South African leaders certainly lean toward Russia."
Professor (Honoris Causa) Vladimir Shubin at the University of the Western Cape agrees that Kiev is looking for support in the Global South, but it has failed to secure any. The majority of countries in Africa, excluding in votes on a UN resolution, does not provide any support to Kiev, he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
"South African President Ramaphosa headed a delegation of African leaders on a peace mission to Kiev, and they also met with President Putin in St. Petersburg, after which Russia and Ukraine exchanged POWs. Even as that mission did not yield any real results, South Africa remains committed to pushing for peace across the globe. And it views Zelensky’s visit in this light, too," Shubin explained. According to him, not everybody in South Africa’s ruling coalition approved Zelensky’s visit, with the Communist party campaigning against his arrival. And the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) reacted negatively to his visit, he continued. "There is no unity on the issue in the country’s ruling alliance. And the official position of Pretoria is that it is willing to help find a peaceful solution while pursuing the policy of non-alignment," he concluded.
Izvestia: Hungary, Slovakia can continue to buy Russian oil
Hungary and Slovakia will maintain the opportunity to buy Russian oil. The EU has not set an expiration date for waivers on the ban on supplies to the two countries, the European Commission told Izvestia. A temporary waiver on the general ban on Russian oil imports for pumping fuel to Central European countries that do not have the opportunity to receive it by sea was introduced in 2022. Nevertheless, in May, the EC is set to publish a roadmap for completely phasing out Russian energy sources by 2027. Slovakia supports the use of existing oil transportation routes, the republic’s Economy Ministry told Izvestia. Experts, too, believe that Bratislava and Budapest will continue to purchase resources from Russia anyway.
While a specific list of countries has not been published, the number of countries enjoying the waiver is gradually diminishing. Poland and Germany stopped relying on the exemption from the oil embargo on June 23, 2023. The Czech Republic fully switched to non-Russian oil supplies earlier this month. Therefore, only Hungary and Slovakia continue to receive Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline now.
Hungary and Slovakia will be able to defend their right to buy energy from Russia using this pipeline, since the situation is less tense now than it was in 2022, when they won their exemption from the oil embargo, Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, told Izvestia.
Slovakia acts appropriately in continuing to buy oil from Russia, because refusing to do so would harm the republic's economy, Peter Marcek, a former parliamentarian, told Izvestia. Slovakia would like to deepen economic cooperation with Russia, he added.
Whether Hungary will continue to buy Russian oil after 2027 depends on next year’s parliamentary election. If the opposition wins, with incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban standing a 50% chance of being reelected, Budapest will join the EU policy, Gabor Stier, head of the foreign policy department at Magyar Nemzet newspaper, told Izvestia. Much depends on relations between Russia and the United States, he argues: if this positive trend continues, Trump will allow Hungary to buy Russian oil.
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