ANKARA, April 10. /TASS/. The US-Iranian talks, which will take place in Pakistan, are not aimed at achieving lasting peace but rather constitute a tactical move enabling the parties to buy time and assess the risks of the crisis spiralling out of control, Abdullah Agar, one of the leading Turkish security experts, told TASS.
"The current truce is not aimed at achieving lasting peace. Basically, it is a tactic to buy time. In essence, both parties are at war, which is very intense, and it has become a source of extremely serious risks. The war is starting to escalate into an uncontrollable conflict. Neither the US nor Israel wants events to unfold this way," the expert said. At the same time, he said that "Iran has to [enter negotiations] because it has no other choice." "Reconciliation under such conditions is impossible," he noted. Agar pointed out "the sides are divided by a huge gap." "At present, the demands of the US and Israel hardly align with each other due to various factors, including the risks generated by the war, pressure on the parties, and domestic public opinion within their countries. Therefore, they need time," he said.
Touching upon the subject of the talks, the expert noted that "in essence, the talks are unnecessary, regardless of whether they take place or not." A pause resulting from the ceasefire and talks "will bring greater benefits to Iran," which "has already stated that during the ceasefire the US has violated three out of 10 conditions proposed by Tehran." However, "the Iranian side will follow the [negotiation] process to the very end and will even go to Islamabad, if conditions allow, because this time window is most important for them. The US, meanwhile, is playing its own game," Agar said. According to him, the US counts on using this pause to build up military forces and gain influence in the region, including through asymmetric and non-military measures.
"But, of course, hope for the talks to be beneficial still remains. I would call it a "golden hope." At present, these talks and bargaining are not aimed at achieving lasting peace, but are taking place due to a serious risk of the war getting out of control. Other participants are being drawn into the conflict, including previously unseen actors. The risk that the war will first become regional, then global and uncontrollable, persists. And I think the sides see this entire picture, especially the US and Israel. They least of all want the war to turn into uncontrollable chaos," the expert noted.
According to Agar, the statements made by Iran also indicate the risk of the conflict transitioning into an uncontrollable phase. Iran suggests that such an outcome may, in general, be acceptable to it, and that "if control is lost, the consequences will affect both Iran and other participants."