MOSCOW, November 3. /TASS/. Washington is unhappy with Israeli actions as it pursues its own agenda in the Middle East; how OFAC’s SDN sanctions will affect the Saint Petersburg Stock Exchange; and Russia and Equatorial Guinea plan to expand bilateral cooperation. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Israeli actions displease US as Washington pursues its own game in Middle East
The US is attempting to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas amid reports of Israeli airstrikes on a refugee camp in Jabalia, experts polled by Izvestia said. On November 2, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken began a Middle Eastern tour, one of the goals of which is to attain a humanitarian truce. The UN has accused Israel of committing war crimes, which in turn casts the US in a negative light, analysts contend. In their view, Washington is hoping to settle the conflict as soon as possible in order to funnel more resources toward supporting Ukraine and Taiwan.
However, the US lacks any mechanism for pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, says Sergey Demidenko, associate professor at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA). According to him, the US cannot impose any sanctions on Israel.
"The Jewish lobby, defense lobby and other lobbies will actively oppose any ceasefire and moves to force Netanyahu to the peace table. Biden is virtually a hostage of circumstances. The US can influence the Israeli leadership with 'kind words' only and, unfortunately, it lacks a 'pistol.' Israel will act as it sees fit and only the resistance by Hamas and other Palestinian organizations can stop it," he told Izvestia.
Biden will not succeed in compelling Israel to conclude a truce with Hamas until the Israeli themselves decide to do so. That said, it is quite possible that the US administration’s goal is to remove Netanyahu from power amid the context of Hamas’ attack on Israel, but it underestimated his "resilience," thinks Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies.
"The Americans overlooked the events of October 7; I think that their intelligence had all the data and could have prevented it. Yet, the administration apparently decided to let things run their course. However, it didn’t expect that the situation would reach this scale," the expert told Izvestia. "Today, Netanyahu is expressing the deep-seated sentiment of Israeli society. It is hard to say how the Biden administration will wriggle its way out of this situation," he added.
In turn, Demidenko stressed that the US does not need a conflict in its strategic zone of interest, the Middle East, and is striving for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Washington is worried about constant strikes on refugee camps and civilians.
"This creates an unwanted information background and draws resources away. The US wants this to stop. Washington doesn’t really want to participate in Middle Eastern affairs right now. Biden staked his bets on the Ukrainian crisis; he would like to tend to his [failing] investment there, whereas the Middle Eastern crisis presents an annoying obstacle for him," the expert explained to Izvestia.
Vedomosti: How sanctions on SPB Stock Exchange impact shareholders, investors
On November 2, the US imposed sanctions on several Russian financial sector companies. Experts say that the most painful blow was including the Saint Petersburg (SPB) Stock Exchange, which is mainly a platform for trading in foreign securities, in the list of so-called Specially Designated Nationals (SDN), the toughest level of US sanctions. The restrictions could literally wipe out the business model of "Russia’s main provider of US liquidity." By including a legal entity in its SDN list, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) blocks its assets in its jurisdiction and prohibits US dollar-denominated transactions and conducting transactions with US partners.
Under a special OFAC license, however, holders of foreign financial instruments will have the chance to withdraw their investments within a certain grace period, Kristina Ikayeva, a commercial lawyer at the Kosenkov and Suvorov law firm, said. However, she does not rule out that Russian brokers may react to the blocking sanctions without waiting for an official commentary from the stock exchange itself and could possibly block access to trading there for clients.
The SPB Stock Exchange has already suspended trading, so any transactions that it was a party to are now impossible regardless of the decisions made by specific brokers, Yury Fedyukin, managing partner at Enterprise Legal Solutions, said. Undoubtedly, this is bad news for their clients, the expert said, but the OFAC license does allow some transactions. The expert suggested that this loophole will help resolve some issues that now will definitely emerge for brokers, investment funds and banks. They will need to assess the situation and potential scenarios for protecting investors’ interests, among others, using the opportunities provided under the special license, he concluded.
According to Ikayeva, the introduction of blocking sanctions against the SPB Stock Exchange is a watershed event, albeit one that was entirely expected. She thinks that it can be viewed as yet another warning not to purchase securities from unfriendly countries via Russian brokers on a Russian stock exchange. By looking at Iran, which has been under US sanctions for many decades already, it becomes quite obvious that one should not expect the lifting of sanctions against Russia in the near future, the expert contends. Moreover, further expansion of the OFAC sanctions lists and the number of sanctioned individuals should be expected.
Izvestia: Equatorial Guinea, Russia to bolster military cooperation
Equatorial Guinea intends to expand defense cooperation with Russia, according to the results of talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Equatorial Guinean President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, on November 2 in Moscow. Experts think that the two leaders also most likely discussed the August 2023 coup d’etat in Gabon and traded expertise on oil and gas production issues.
"Equatorial Guinea has been consistently developing its navy; its sailors are being trained in Russia. The country controls a section of the Gulf of Guinea that significantly surpasses the country’s land area, and is encountering a number of systemic security challenges, such as piracy," Andrey Maslov, director of the Center for African Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), told Izvestia.
Russia’s relations with Equatorial Guinea are only seeing real development now despite previously concluded agreements in various fields. For example, there has been no dynamics in trade turnover over the past 20 years, Nikita Panin, program coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council and researcher at the Center for African Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), told Izvestia. According to him, the sides may have touched on cooperation in healthcare and education because students from Equatorial Guinea are already attending universities in Russia.
Certainly, the visit of the African leader is also significant because his country is currently chairing the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). Panin does note that this particular organization is a rather weak structure compared to other subregional groups because of Central African countries’ differing approaches to the international agenda, further economic development and even the environment.
"At this stage, unfortunately, Central African countries are not the primary subregion for Russia’s foreign policy on the continent, with the possible exception of the Central African Republic. This country became one of those where we decided to deliver grain free of charge, but our relations are not particularly close with other countries in that region," Panin concluded.
Vedomosti: US, China to resume consultations on nuclear arms control
China agreed to hold consultations with the US on nuclear arms control and non-proliferation on November 6, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, citing sources. The meeting will be held in anticipation of talks between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Meeting in San Francisco in mid-November.
The announced consultations serve to restore the process, which is now likely to be held in an expanded format, Vasily Kashin, head of the Center for Contemporary Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University). It is important not to view them as talks but rather an exchange of opinions between officials and experts on the countries’ nuclear doctrines and the development of armed forces and strategic stability, he said.
China’s decision to resume the dialogue, which was interrupted during the Trump administration, may be viewed as a step toward Washington. Beijing thought it strategically important to resume such interaction, which, however, may be reconsidered should more bilateral aggravation flare up. The consultations will help China understand the US’ stance, but do not translate into a reconsideration of Beijing’s principled refusal to participate in formal talks until the US disarms to China’s level. It makes no sense for Russia to participate in this, Kashin asserts.
Such consultations between the US and China are a landmark event, but it is premature to speak about future prospects, Oleg Krivolapov, chief researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, said. The expert thinks that a number of issues in need of discussion have emerged between the two countries, including opportunities for mutual control and asymmetry in the quantity of arms.
Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, thinks that the event is mostly symbolic. He explains that it is useless for Russia to participate in "Sino-US scenarios," because the "nuclear five" format is of greater interest to Moscow. In his opinion, in order to maintain strategic stability, long-term transparency is more important, preventing a situation when nuclear powers may be wary of a rapid increase in arsenals by potential adversaries.
Launching such consultations are a positive move that seemed impossible only a couple of months ago, says Pavel Podvig, senior researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) in Geneva. He also does not anticipate any agreements along the Soviet/Russian-US model because quantitative limitations will not be discussed. However, he pointed out that they did not play a central role in the Soviet/Russian-US talks either, while the very fact of talks and agreements was important, indicating that the sides were ready to play by the rules and cooperate. In Podvig’s opinion, the same situation is now being seen with the US-Chinese consultations.
Kommersant: North Korea plans to close up to one-fourth of its diplomatic missions abroad
In the near future, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) may shut down about a quarter of its embassies and consulates abroad. And this is not a diplomatic demarche; rather, it is an economizing measure triggered by a sharp dearth of funds.
Officially, Pyongyang has only announced closing its embassies in Uganda and Angola; however, according to some information, the same has already happened with its embassy in Spain and the consulate general in Hong Kong. Experts are confident that this is only the beginning. Due to the financial crisis, the country will have to shut down dozens of its foreign missions.
Andrey Lankov, professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, suggested that the DPRK will begin by removing its embassies from those second-tier countries where it does not have apparent interests. "And that’s the majority of them. Possibly, the embassies in a number of minor countries in Central and Eastern Europe will be cut, and three to four embassies will remain in Europe (currently, there are about a dozen of them - Kommersant). They don’t have the need now to actively seek a way to make money in second-tier countries because they have guaranteed Chinese payments and, apparently, there will be some support from Russia, although it will be patently less than China’s. And, relying on these two sources, the North Koreans can make do without getting involved with countries like Spain," the expert told Kommersant.
This way, only the most needed countries will survive. According to Lankov, several countries with whom Pyongyang is actively engaged, presumably including Syria, Egypt and Iran, will definitely not go anywhere in the future. Chad O’Carroll, founder of the NK Pro website, which covers events in the DPRK, thinks that North Korea will definitely retain embassies in those countries that have their own diplomatic missions in Pyongyang, including Russia. According to him, there used to be about 24-25 foreign embassies in the DPRK, but their number shrank to six or seven following the COVID-19 pandemic. The expert pointed out that some countries would like to return their diplomatic missions to Pyongyang but North Korea is against this.
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