LONDON, March 14. /TASS/. Middle Eastern countries could face a 70% drop in oil production as a result of military operations by Israel and the US against Iran, Aditya Saraswat, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Research Director at the consulting firm Rystad Energy, told TASS.
"In just over a week since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, more than 12 million barrels of oil equivalent per day of Middle East oil and gas production has been taken offline, including 7 million barrels per day of crude supply - equivalent to roughly 7% of total global liquids demand. Iraq has been hit hardest, with over 60% of its pre-conflict volume curtailed. Still, the more alarming reality is that the worst is likely yet to come. In a worst-case scenario Middle East crude output could fall to approximately 6 million bpd, a region-wide reduction of 70% from the pre-conflict baseline," the expert pointed out.
He stressed that "further cuts from major Middle East oil producers cannot be ruled out as storage tanks fill to the brim, bypass infrastructure approaches its limit, and the conflict shows no sign of a near-term resolution." "If and when the crisis reaches an end, it will take months to restore operations to pre-conflict levels, with the questions of infrastructure integrity and a recalibrated geopolitical order still at play," Saraswat noted.
In his view, even if Russia provides additional supplies, importers will be able to offset only part of the potential losses.
The expert stressed that "a historic supply crisis" might be triggered "if the conflict is not resolved in the coming weeks."
The United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, were struck. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliatory operation, targeting sites in Israel. US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were also hit. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and some other key Iranian leaders were killed in the joint US-Israeli attack.