MOSCOW, April 25. /TASS/. They key rate is a "prescription drug" to combat inflation and there should be no delay in this process, Governor of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said at the press conference after the Board meeting.
TASS has collected key statements of the Central Bank chief.
Key rate
A "broad consensus" has evolved at the Board meeting today about keeping the key rate at the level of 21%. The key rate is the "prescription drug" against inflation "that was and is successfully used by central banks in many countries." Any delay or insufficient "dosage" may only make the situation worse.
If the inflation target is increased, low rates "will never be" in the economy. There are no reasons to keep up with high inflation.
"The probability of key rate lifting has become smaller."
It will be needed to keep stringent monetary conditions for a long period of time.
Inflation
It is not possible so far to make an unambiguous conclusion on steady lowering of inflation pressure "because the significant slowdown of price growth rates does not occur across the whole range of goods and services."
The breaking point and the transition to the decline of annual inflation in Russia will be in May, although a certain increase will be possible in July, related to the upward adjustment of utilities tariffs.
Global economy
The Central Bank lowered the forecast of the global economic growth due to "the revision of import tariffs in the largest economies of the world."
Greater cooldown of the world economy due to trade wars is the risk for the base case forecast, the regulator believes.
The Bank of Russia has addressed the factor of global trade wars in its macroeconomic forecast. "This is because the decline in prices of our main export commodities is the main channel of the effect of these trade wars on the Russian economy."
The effect of import tariffs growth in the US is minimal for Russia and is indirect. It is "in the first instance through weaker international demand and the decline in global commodity prices."
The current situation is far from materialization of the scenario with a significant dip in the global economic growth.
Russian economy and the ruble
The incremental growth rates of investments, "to all appearances, will decelerate."
The potential of the Russian economy continues growing on large-scale investments made in prior years.
The regulator "does not see significant inflows" of the foreign capital to the Russian market.
Ruble rate strengthening can be attributed to a greater extent to stable factors. The currency rate decline does not bear any significant risks because savings are largely in rubles.
Labor market
The Central Bank continues recording signs of relaxation in the labor market. The unemployment rate continues to be minimal.
Budgetary policy
Reconsideration of the cutoff price for oil will increase the long-term stability of the budgetary policy in the scenario with less favorable conditions in the global energy market.
Independence of central banks
Independence of central banks is "an indicator of maturity of the economic policy" in the country.
Lending
A dip in mortgage lending due to the cancellation of fees taken from developers will be a short-term one.