MOSCOW, December 5. /TASS/. The US side proposed dividing its peace plan for Ukraine into four packages, Russian President Vladimir Putin told an Indian TV channel, and the EU has set its sights on the total expropriation of Russia’s immobilized assets. Meanwhile, Moscow dismisses the European Commission’s move to add Russia to the list of high-risk jurisdictions as politicized. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: US proposed breaking its peace plan into four elements, Putin reveals
The American side divided US President Donald Trump’s Ukraine peace proposal into four packages and proposed discussing them separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin told India Today television before departing for New Delhi. He reiterated that the latest initiatives are based on agreements reached at the Russia-US summit in Anchorage on August 15. Russia will liberate Donbass and Novorossiya regardless, whether by military means or through other avenues, Putin emphasized.
Global media first reported about several versions of Trump’s draft in late November. And while both Washington and Moscow acknowledge that there is a certain package of proposals, their specific content has not been officially confirmed yet. Sources told US media, including Axios as well as CNN and ABC News TV channels, that territory remains one of the most complicated issues that have yet to be resolved. Besides, there is no consensus on security guarantees for Ukraine.
Nikolay Silayev, leading research fellow at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University, described the four elements of Trump’s plan as a purely technical matter. It is too early to discuss establishing working groups based on that, even as Russia put forward such a proposal during Istanbul talks and has not since abandoned that, he added. Also, the Americans reaffirmed their commitment to finding a long-term solution to the conflict, not just a ceasefire, and the ball is now in Ukraine’s court, the expert continued. As regards Trump’s plan, it could still be adjusted. And, despite US and European media reports, it represents exclusively the US vision of how to resolve the conflict, not a Kremlin-drafted paper. The US side, Silayev explained to Vedomosti, has its own vision of the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine and agrees that it has not been unfolding favorably for Kiev. Washington is seeking to safeguard Ukraine as its own and, in effect, Western asset in a situation where Ukrainian troops have been retreating, the expert concluded.
So far, Russia and the United States have maintained "positive contacts, but without result," editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs journal Fyodor Lukyanov believes. Moscow has refused to soften its stance, including on the key issues of withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the Donbass region or restricting Ukraine’s military capabilities in the future, he said. This harsh stance hardly surprised the US side, therefore the situation has stalled, the expert continued. Putin stated that Moscow has no compelling reason to accelerate the process and considers the current trajectory of hostilities acceptable. The negotiation process will run in parallel to the hostilities, and Moscow believes that things will deteriorate for Ukraine with every step on the negotiations track, Lukyanov said.
Izvestia: EU has its eyes set on total expropriation of frozen Russian assets
Apart from the reparations loan scenario, the European Union is discussing confiscating all of Russia’s immobilized assets, Czech MEP Tomasz Zdechovsky told Izvestia. Unlike a loan backed with frozen assets, the measure carries much more serious legal and political risks. However, the loan mechanism has already been greenlighted by the European Commission and will be submitted for discussion to EU leaders at a summit on December 18. Belgium has actively opposed the plan, fearing suits by Russia. Experts do not exclude that Moscow could seize EU countries’ assets in response.
A complete confiscation of assets is unlikely, for in legal terms such a process would be extremely difficult due to international law norms, European Parliament member Thierry Mariani told Izvestia. "And it would send a disastrous signal in political terms. At a time when the Russian and US sides are holding an indirect dialogue on finding ways of de-escalation, creating such a radical precedent would mean shutting the door to any diplomatic progress. And it would also portray the European Union as an unreliable player who is ready to backtrack on its own principles for momentary gain," he argued.
A meeting of the European Council slated for December 18-19 could shed light on the situation, Mariani stressed, for it will show if EU member states are prepared to follow the European Union’s lead on a reparations loan or other measures, with Belgium being the key obstacle to that.
It will be challenging for Belgium to make the decision to expropriate Russia’s sovereign assets, Polina Chupriyanova, a program coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia. Neither the US legislature nor Belgium’s national legislature, can consider such actions as lawful, she said.
And Moscow has countermeasures at its disposal. Potential Russian steps could include using response measures rather than demands to compensate the loss of assets, Chupriyanova maintained. Russia already has the mechanism for the confiscation of US assets in the event of similar steps by the United States, and there is nothing preventing it from developing a parallel arsenal of tools to counteract the European Union, she concluded.
Vedomosti: Russia dismisses EC’s move to add it to list of high-risk jurisdictions as politicized
The press release from the European Commission (EC) regarding its decision to list Russia as a high-risk country for anti-money laundering does not contain any specific reference to any "strategic deficiencies" in the Russian system of counteraction to money laundering and terrorist financing, a Rosfinmonitoring official told Vedomosti. Like the Financial Action Task Force’s move to suspend Russia’s membership in the organization in February 2023, the latest decision is "purely politicized," he emphasized.
The EC’s paper applies only to organizations under the EU’s jurisdiction, therefore the Russian anti-money laundering system, including the lending and financial sector, will function as before, the official noted. Besides, the EC drafted its document without Russian participation, which violates the rule of assessing third countries established by the bloc itself, he added.
On Wednesday evening, the EC added Russia to its list of high-risk countries with strategic deficiencies in their anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing frameworks (AML/CFT). The regulation will come into force after scrutiny and non-objection of the European Parliament and the Council of Europe within a one-month period, the EU’s executive arm explained. So far, 29 countries have been added to the list of such high-risk jurisdictions, including Afghanistan, Algeria, Iran, Laos, Monaco, Mozambique, Myanmar, North Korea, South Africa, Syria, Venezuela, and Vietnam.
The move means that European lenders and financial intermediaries will view any connections to Russia as high-risk, lawyer Alexey Gavrishev, a managing partner at AVG Legal, explained to Vedomosti. This is an add-on to the existing restrictions, he added, and from now on banks will have to more rigorously monitor all Russia-related transactions, among other procedures.
The EU’s latest decision is a politicized move that reflects the current nature of relations rather than the quality of the Russian anti-money laundering system, Denis Korolyov, a partner at B1, said. Hence, the country can be removed from the list only after the policy course being pursued by the EU itself shifts or when conditions for the normalization of dialogue emerge, he argued. As long as Europe uses financial compliance mechanisms for general political pressure, there is no reason to expect that it will review its decision, the expert added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Italy, Czech Republic decline military assistance to Ukraine
As negotiations on a ceasefire continue, Russia has been actively advancing along nearly the entire front line. While Ukrainian troops remain capable of holding the line as they try to launch long-range strikes inside Russia, Western politicians, experts and media estimate that Russia is increasingly gaining the ability to fulfill objectives assigned as part of the special military operation.
US President Donald Trump indirectly commended Russia’s military successes on the front as he told reporters that Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky is trying to negotiate peace on worse terms now than before, when he visited the White House six months ago. German media reported on the dire situation facing the Ukrainian army. Ukrainian military expert Konstantin Mashovets pointed to a broad breakthrough by Russian troops as they advance up to 3 km per day. The Telegraph also reported that Russian forces have accelerated their gains across the front lines.
Meanwhile, a number of European countries and the NATO leadership are still clinging to the hope that Ukraine will be able to counteract Russia and enforce its peace terms. NATO chief Mark Rutte said that allies will have to send 1 billion euros worth of weapons to Ukraine per month under the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program of US weapons purchases for Kiev. However, the prospects of a potential peace deal between Moscow and Kiev have reduced Europe’s incentive to supply weapons to Ukraine, according to Italian Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani. It would be "premature" for his country to join NATO’s program of buying US weapons for Ukraine amid ongoing peace negotiations, Bloomberg reported.
Czech media reported that Kiev will not receive T-72 tanks Prague had previously committed to supply. The project to deliver T-72s to Ukrainian troops is set to be terminated, the country’s Defense Ministry said. "The Czech government has changed, and the new government is against providing military aid to Ukraine. Therefore, they [Czechia] apparently decided that Ukraine would not need the tanks they had previously pledged. Many countries in Europe want an end to the conflict, so weapons supplies to the Ukrainian army have declined," military expert and retired Colonel Nikolay Shulgin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Kommersant: VTB proposes new payment system for Russian oil exports to India
Kommersant has learned that VTB CEO Andrey Kostin has proposed introducing a procedure for settling oil payments with India, one of Russia’s key oil consumers. Under it, payments would be made through authorized lenders, with the Indian rupee converted to the yuan. On the one hand, this would simplify payments, and on the other hand, help address the accumulation of rupees earned from Russian energy exports in the country. The implementation of the idea would require India’s consent and will hardly eliminate the trade disbalance estimated at $59.6 billion, analysts warn.
Dmitry Kasatkin, a managing partner at Kasatkin Consulting, noted that the settlements issue remains a major challenge facing bilateral trade with India.
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University, argues that implementing the procedure would require lenders to be willing to work with all three parties, while India will need to establish a special "window" for interaction with sanctioned Russian businesses. The yuan could be a convenient instrument as, unlike the rupee, it could be used for imports from China, he added.
According to Kpler, India could also try to find an alternative to Russian oil under pressure, but this would be a challenging, expensive, and risky process. Analysts predict that the transition to commodities from other suppliers would push freight costs higher and reduce the discount, resulting in higher inflation, lower oil refinery margins, and a political backlash. Yekaterina Orlova, head of law practice at Grace Consulting Ltd., noted that even though converting the rupee to the ruble or the yuan could improve the circulation of the Indian currency, it will not help make it a full-fledged reserve currency anyway.
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