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Europe unable to immediately reject Russian LNG — expert

European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson said earlier the European Commission intends to put into effect the directive on the phased ban of Russian liquefied natural gas supplies to Europe in April of this year

MOSCOW, March 4. /TASS/. Europe will not be able to immediately opt out from significant supplies of Russian liquefied natural gas but proactive reduction of imports may begin in the second half of 2025, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman told TASS.

"Outright rejection of Russian LNG will not be probably meant so far. Russia exported about 16 mln metric tons of LNG (mainly from Yamal LNG project) to Europe in 2023, which is a significant volume that will be difficult to be quickly substituted. At the same time, complete rejection of Russian gas remains a question of time for the EU - the base plan contemplates abandonment by 2027," the expert said.

European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson said earlier the European Commission intends to put into effect the directive on the phased ban of Russian liquefied natural gas supplies to Europe in April of this year.

"From our point of view, the EU countries will initially begin rejecting pipeline gas and in particular volumes now flowing in transit through Ukraine (about 15 bln cubic meters per year). It will be difficult to substitute simultaneously LNG and volumes flowing through Ukraine in conditions of still constrained offer in the global gas market. We expect in connection therewith that the start of the proactive decline of Russian gas imports is the perspective for the second half of 2025," Kaufman said. A moderate drop in supplies can be expected as early as in this year amid record high reserves in underground gas storages and smaller demand.

The complete rejection of Russian LNG may occur in 2026-2027 only. If abandonment of Russian LNG is phased, the effect for the European market will be minimal because of the starting period of proactive commissioning of new LNG facilities in the US and growing exports from Qatar.

"As regards Novatek, it may redirect volumes to be lost to Asia-Pacific market. The key risk is the shortage of gas carriers because redirection to Asia-Pacific markets will mean an increase of shipping distance," the analyst added.

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