MOSCOW, September 10. /TASS/. The process of deepening integration between Moscow and Minsk will proceed more actively after the presidents of the two counties, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, signed 28 union programs, but no possibility of Belarus being taken over by Russia is on the agenda, the Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, Andrei Kortunov, told TASS on Friday.
The expert believes that the signing of the road maps demonstrates that, on the one hand, the sides have managed to settle aspects they had previously disagreed on. This is an indication that Moscow and Minsk are very serious-minded about their further rapprochement. He stressed that the signed agreements would considerably facilitate bilateral economic cooperation.
"Possibly, there will emerge a parliament of the Union State. This has been discussed for a long while. A great deal has been said on the issue, but the way I see it, both sides - Putin and Lukashenko - will painstakingly steer clear of any decisions or formulas that might be interpreted as Russia's takeover of Belarus. Everybody understands that this would breed many problems. Belarusian nationalism may be not very strong, but it does exist, and such a decision might fuel it. Besides, it is pretty clear that in the West this will be interpreted as 'another manifestation of Russian expansionism' and even trigger some more anti-Russian actions," Kortunov said.
He predicts that Russia and Belarus will display utmost caution in creating inter-state institutions. Their bilateral cooperation will revolve around trade and the economy above all. Russian businesses, he speculated, might get access to some more assets in Belarus. Deeper economic interaction will inevitably exert influence on socio-political cooperation, Kortunov said.
"Lukashenko is in a precarious position, there is a large deficit and Western partners have pulled out from joint projects. Some sectors have not become direct targets of sanctions pressure yet, but potential investors and partners are looking at them with a certain dread. All this should be borne in mind, of course. In a situation like this, a rapprochement with Russia has no alternatives," he concluded.
Logic restored
The deputy director of the Institute of CIS Counties, Vladimir Zharikhin, has said the 28 road maps that have been signed put the process of Russian-Belarusian integration on a more realistic track. For deeper interaction "an economic basis is to be created first, and then the political superstructure is to be added."
"Russia and Belarus have long tried to start with the roof, with creating a political superstructure, but to little avail, because there was no proper economic basis. The very same European Union had begun to be shaped in a different fashion. First, there emerged the European Coal and Steel Community. The Common Market followed. Eventually, the European Union was established in its current form, with a common parliament and a common currency. We tend to rush with 'building Communism in ten years' or a Union State overnight. It does not work like that. At last, we have realized this and laid a groundwork by signing the 28 documents," Zharikhin said.
He described the results of the Putin-Lukashenko meeting as a breakthrough and expressed the certainty that since the two sides eventually managed to forge agreement on many issues that had remained a stumbling block for a long time, in particular, the agreements in the fuel and energy sector, all these plans will materialize. At the same time, he does not expect political integration between Moscow and Minsk will gain steam straight away. The problems that may emerge on the road to a Union Parliament will be many.
"The way I see it, two countries so much different in terms of population, territory and GDP will discover that creating a Union Parliament will be a very tricky business. Such a political superstructure is more likely to emerge in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU): the more members there are, the easier it will be to formulate the rules of electing a common legislature," Zharikhin stressed.
What is most important, Putin said that the creation of a Union parliament is not an issue on tomorrow's agenda. For this a solid basis of economic and financial relations between the countries involved is to be built first," he added.
On Thursday, all 28 union programs of the two countries were agreed on, following the Putin-Lukashenko meeting in Moscow. The Russian president said that the negotiations produced consent on conducting a common macro-economic policy, integrating the payment system, and deepening cooperation in information security, customs and energy and on other tracks.