MOSCOW, February 20. /TASS/. India has resolved to continue purchasing Russian oil despite US pressure; gas reserves in the EU have fallen to a four-year low, heightening concerns about potential supply shortages and price increases; and the United States is assembling its largest regional naval and air presence since the Iraq invasion near Iran. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: India affirms it will continue purchasing Russian oil despite US pressure
India has made a definitive decision regarding Russian energy resources. New Delhi will continue purchasing oil despite pressure from the United States, India’s Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar told Izvestia. On August 21, the foreign ministers of Russia and India are set to meet in Moscow to discuss deepening their strategic partnership. Earlier, Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Indian imports in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil. According to experts, Washington is attempting to leverage these measures to secure more favorable terms and gain broader access to the Indian market.
India is not considering an embargo on Russian oil, Ambassador Vinay Kumar said. "No, India buys what is best for itself. <…> The question is not whether to ban it or not. It is a matter of its security, of the country’s economic and energy interests, particularly the energy needs of its people. Therefore, we will continue to purchase your oil depending on economic benefit. Our government has made it clear that India will take all measures to protect its national interests. And this is a national interest — the energy security of 1.4 bln people of India," the diplomat told Izvestia.
According to him, the country is highly sensitive to any measures or actions by those who "infringe on India’s sovereignty."
Given the strong ties between Russia and India, which are also bound by close cooperation within BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the United States is unlikely to compel New Delhi to prohibit incoming supplies. However, Washington could trigger a substantial reduction in purchase volumes, Head of the Center for the Indo-Pacific Region at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Alexey Kupriyanov told Izvestia. In his view, such a development would slow the growth of India’s oil refining sector and drive up domestic gasoline prices.
Moreover, it would create a supply shortage in the oil market and push global prices higher, Indian political scientist Rakesh Bhadauria noted. "If India stops purchasing Russian oil, it will signal that it has yielded to US pressure and will undermine the country’s policy of strategic autonomy," the expert said.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: EU gas reserves fall to four-year low, raising prospects of new energy crisis
As of February 18, gas reserves in the underground storage (UGS) facilities of the European Union countries had fallen below 33%. Across Europe, with at least another month of the heating season remaining, only about 35.04 bln cubic meters of natural gas remain in storage. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), this is the lowest level recorded on this date in the past four years. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta believe there is a moderate risk of a summer gas crisis in the EU, driven by low storage levels, restrictions on short-term Russian LNG imports, and pricing dynamics in the United States that could incentivize suppliers to keep elevated European gas prices.
Europe is placing its hopes on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), the production capacity of which is expanding. However, the United States itself has recently faced an unexpected challenge in its domestic gas market, the newspaper writes. Due to rising exports to the EU, gas prices in the US have increased by 50%, causing significant dissatisfaction among Americans. Although export restrictions have not been introduced, discussions about such measures are underway.
Russia is unlikely to return to the European gas market in the near term, but it could derive certain benefits if gas prices in the EU rise. First, pipeline deliveries of Russian gas to Europe will continue through September 30, 2027. Currently, prices for these supplies are generally linked to average quarterly exchange quotations. Export duties are levied on pipeline gas supplied to the federal budget of the Russian Federation, and the size of this duty depends on the gas price. Deliveries via the TurkStream pipeline to Europe are ongoing, providing an opportunity for additional revenue.
Experts surveyed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta assess the likelihood of a gas crisis in the EU this summer as moderate. Maria Belova, Research Director at Implementa, told the newspaper that low gas reserves in European underground storage facilities, combined with the forthcoming ban on short-term imports of Russian LNG, create a risk of supply shortages and rising gas prices in the coming summer months.
According to Alexey Grivach, Deputy Head of the National Energy Security Fund, much will depend on gas prices in the United States. Suppliers may have an interest in maintaining high gas prices in Europe despite an increase in supply.
Izvestia: Washington amasses major naval, air power near Iran while Tehran prepares potential multi-front response
A second US strike group, led by the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, is expected to reach the eastern Mediterranean by the coming weekend, which would enable its air wing to take part in a potential attack on Iran, experts told Izvestia. The United States is assembling the largest air grouping in the region since the invasion of Iraq. However, Iran possesses the means to respond to possible aggression — it has a sufficient number of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as long-range drones, to simultaneously strike US military bases in the Middle East and targets in Israel.
According to monitoring resources, the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford is already in the Mediterranean Sea. It will require two to three days to reach the eastern part of the basin and assume its position there.
"It is believed that until this group arrives in the area near Iran, the United States is unlikely to initiate any active operations," military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia. "However, nothing actually prevents them from breaking that rule, since their decision-making will apparently be guided by short-term political motives known only to them," he added.
According to various estimates, more than 600 Tomahawk cruise missiles are currently deployed aboard US ships and submarines operating in the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the eastern Mediterranean.
Iran’s retaliatory actions could include strikes using ballistic missiles and long-range kamikaze drones of the Shahed type. According to assessments by US and Israeli intelligence services and analytical centers, in 2025 Iran possessed the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East — up to 3,000 missiles.
"Iran will use all of this against targets in Israel and against American bases in the Persian Gulf region and across the broader Middle East. To defend its own territory, Iran will employ its air defense systems. It plans to repel the majority of US and Israeli air strikes. However, in June 2025, its air defense actions proved ineffective: the Americans and Israelis conducted several hundred sorties, yet not a single aircraft was downed," Dmitry Kornev said.
It is entirely possible that even the US military command does not know whether an operation will be launched, military expert Yuri Lyamin believes. "Perhaps President Trump has already made a political decision, and they are simply concealing it. But it is also possible that no decision has yet been made, and it is impossible to say when it will be," he told Izvestia.
In the expert’s view, once the concentration of forces in the region is completed in the coming days, a window of opportunity lasting several weeks will emerge for the United States.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Zelensky frames ceasefire as US-backed priority while floating election timeline, Putin talks
Commenting on the recent trilateral negotiations in Geneva on a peaceful settlement of the military conflict with Russia, Vladimir Zelensky once again called on Western allies to prioritize a ceasefire, while also presenting this demand as backed by Washington. He justified the idea by citing the need to hold elections. Zelensky also proposed arranging a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss territorial and security issues. Experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta believe Zelensky’s ceasefire and election proposals are largely rhetorical responses to Western political signals, while a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky is viewed as highly unlikely.
If Western partners, together with the United States, helped deprive Russia of the necessary resources, this would make it possible to end the large-scale armed confrontation with the Russian Federation that has continued since February 2022, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vladimir Ogryzko told journalists on Thursday following the trilateral consultations on February 17-18 in Geneva concerning a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.
Oleg Barabanov, a professor at MGIMO University and Program Director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Zelensky’s references to the need for a temporary truce may also have been voiced in response to US President Donald Trump’s proposal to hold new elections in Ukraine as soon as possible. Previously, officials in Kiev had pointed to the necessity of lifting martial law and allowing for a six-month preparation period for an electoral campaign. Now, however, Zelensky has stated that Kiev is ready to hold elections, but that doing so would require a ceasefire, even if only for two months. Russian representatives have mentioned only the possibility of halting hostilities for one day.
"However, the issue of elections does not appear to be central to the negotiating agenda. Nor is it central to Kiev’s consultations with Western partners, which are primarily focused on security guarantees for the Ukrainian side. So, it seems that this was more of a rhetorical response by Zelensky in his interview," Barabanov suggested.
In the expert’s view, the proposed negotiations between Putin and Zelensky will not take place in any format. "In my opinion, such a meeting is psychologically impossible for the Russian side. Zelensky understands this and therefore regularly raises the issue," the expert believes.
Kommersant: Brent oil climbs to six-month high above $71 on Middle East tensions
Brent crude oil prices have returned to levels above $71 per barrel for the first time in six months. Over the past two days, quotations have risen by more than 6% amid reports that the United States is building up its military presence in the Middle East and that military action against Iran is expected. Should a negative scenario materialize, prices could reach $80 per barrel, as occurred in June 2025 during the exchange of missile strikes between Israel and Iran. On Russian markets, the situation has had a limited impact - however, experts do not rule out a reduced discount on Russian oil in the event of a reduction in global supplies from Iran, Kommersant writes.
The latest surge to a multi-month high was triggered by active US preparations for potential military operations against Iran, despite ongoing negotiations between the two countries.
"The strengthening of the US military presence in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations increase the risk of supply disruptions, primarily through potential export restrictions or logistical risks in the region," investment banker Ilya Sushkov told Kommersant.
Iran remains a significant supplier of oil to the global market, with its exports estimated at 1.5-2 mln barrels per day. "Any threats of tightening sanctions or physically restricting supplies directly affect the balance. The market is already at a sensitive juncture amid the geopolitical situation in another part of the world," Ruslan Klyshko, Director of the Wealth Management Department at AF Capital Asset Management, noted.
The principal concern for investors centers on the risk of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 mln barrels of oil per day are transported — about 20% of global demand for crude — originating not only from Iran but also from Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
Further developments in the region will remain a key factor for the oil market. According to Ruslan Klyshko, even a limited military operation could rapidly propel prices into the $80-85 per barrel range.
The recent rise in oil prices has had a limited impact on Russia’s equity and currency markets. "Given that the volume of Russia’s external energy exports is declining both in physical terms and in value, the ruble’s position is likely to deteriorate," Head of the Analytical Service Division at Zenit Bank Vladimir Evstifeev believes.
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