MOSCOW, February 19. /TASS/. The use by the European Union of all gas pumped into its underground gas storage (UGS) facilities this summer and the beginning of withdrawals from reserves leftover from previous years undermines the stability of countries. In this scenario, any geopolitical event affecting LNG delivery routes or an accident at a key liquefaction plant could instantly trigger a crisis since reserves in UGS facilities are the EU’s only safety net, which is now rapidly dwindling, Nikolay Gaponenko, PhD in Economics and Associate Professor at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), told TASS.
"Any geopolitical event affecting LNG supply routes, such as the situation in the Red Sea, problems in the Strait of Malacca, or an accident at a key liquefaction plant, could instantly trigger a crisis. Reserves in underground gas storage facilities are the only safety net, and it’s rapidly shrinking," the expert said, emphasizing that the EU’s energy security continues to depend on weather and uninterrupted LNG supplies.
According to TASS calculations based on data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), net withdrawal (the net difference between the volume withdrawn and injected) of gas from UGS facilities in Europe since the beginning of the heating season has exceeded 55 bln cubic meters (bcm), which means that EU countries have used up all the gas they injected into UGS facilities in the summer and have begun withdrawing from older reserves.
The expert is convinced that the current situation is not a disaster, but rather a normal one, signaling a rapid rate of reserve depletion and allowing for conclusions about the emerging key risks.
According to Gaponenko, one of the risks in this situation is the end of the heating season with abnormally low reserves.
"If the 2026 winter is prolonged or in the event of cold temperatures in March, the occupancy rate of UGS facilities could drop below 20-25%. This would leave the EU with virtually empty storage facilities in the spring, sharply reducing the energy system’s resilience to potential force majeure events and creating a colossal burden at the start of the next injection season," he said.
There are also risks for the next heating season, for example, empty storage facilities by March-April 2026 indicate that this summer Europe will have to pump gas literally from scratch or from minimal base values.
In this case, filling UGS facilities by next winter, namely November 2026, will require significantly greater LNG purchases on the spot market during the summer. "This will create additional demand, which will inevitably push prices up. High gas prices in the summer will hit industry and further increase inflationary pressure," Gaponenko explained.
Struggle over LNG
Increased competition for LNG will be an equally influential factor. According to the expert, Europe is currently the de facto world leader in LNG imports, and low levels of reserves in UGS facilities make the EU a highly dependent buyer, forced to pay any price to secure supplies.
"This means that if the winter in Asia is colder than expected, or there are disruptions to major export capacities, for example in the US or Qatar, Europe will face intense competition," he said, adding that this could lead to intense price speculation and volatility in the global gas market.