MOSCOW, October 18. /TASS/. The number of active COVID-19 cases may reach one million in Russia in about two weeks, Viktor Zakharov, holder of the chair in mathematical modeling of energy systems and head of the Intellectual Logistics Center at the St. Petersburg State University, told TASS on Monday.
A team led by Zakharov has developed a mathematical model called CIR (Confirmed cases, Infected, Removed). The model is based on a large number of variables and makes it possible to forecast the coronavirus rate for a span of one month more accurately. Early last week, the experts said that under the most pessimistic scenario the threshold of one million active cases would be surpassed on November 10.
"The COVID-19 incidence rates in Russia last week were higher than anticipated. However, the growth slowed down today. If today’s rates are preserved, <…> the number of active cases will continue to grow and may reach one million on November 2. Today, the country reported 785,647 active cases," Zakharov said, adding that the daily tally of new coronavirus cases may exceed 37,000 by early November.
"After that, according to the principle of the dynamic balance of epidemics statistics, the number of active cases will continue to grow and will reach 1.150 million by mid-November," he noted.