YAKUTSK, April 14. /TASS/. Hydrology models are able to forecast floods in Yakutia’s Arctic settlements, a leading expert of the Melnikov Permafrost Institute (the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Siberian Branch) Nikita Tananayev told TASS.
Every year, spring floods affect hundreds of settlements in the Far East. Yakutia is among Russian regions where floods are most often. Its 123 settlements, where 453,000 live, are located in the areas of regular floods.
"With great difficulty [in Yakutia] we have predicted dates when floods will begin, and we almost do not have forecasts for highest water levels in rivers during the flood. In addition to the autonomous systems to monitor water levels on Yakut rivers, using which we have suggested for quite a time, it is necessary to make hydrological models that can calculate the probability of flooding. Using such a model for northern regions has been of high demand, including in Yakutia," Tananayev said.
The system could be financed by the involved authorities - the regional government and the ministry of emergency situations. "The entire cycle of work on floods has five stages - forecast, warning, preparations, response and consequence management. The situation is good with preparations for the passage of flood waves - those are the responsibility of the municipalities and emergency commissions. Preparations include temporary accommodation facilities, stocks of medicines and drinking water. However, as for the forecast [of river flooding], everything is very bad so far," the scientist said.
Forecast problems
Hydrological models are complex systems to calculate the "behavior" of rivers based on meteorological information. "About the same, but even more complicated are the models to forecast weather for a few days ahead. This is the main difficulty of using hydrological models to predict floods - not every model can use a regular weather forecast for its work. In addition, such models are always created and adapted to a specific river basin, which also complicates the task," the expert said.
Associate Professor at the Public Administration and Public Policy Department of the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (RANEPA), and coordinator of the Center for Development of the Arctic (PORA) Alexander Vorotnikov said forecast accuracy in the Arctic regions would be only growing in the near future.
"In the Russian Arctic zone will be working a satellite grouping, and the first satellite already sends information as it continues monitoring, including the state of the natural environment. In the near future, the entire Russian Arctic, including the Yakut part, will have a stable access to the Internet. The stable access to the Internet will make it possible to create a "digital twin" of the process to forecast and minimize consequences of flooding," the expert said.
A digital twin is a virtual representation of mutually connected and highly adequate digital models of industrial and exploitation processes, he said, adding their parameters may be managed in the virtual environment. "This technology allows to describe practically exhaustively the flood process, and, most importantly, to practice in it adequate solutions to minimize consequences from the natural calamity," he added.
Preparations for flood
The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations forecasts waters may rise to critical levels in 14 rivers near 98 settlements in Yakutia in 2021. Specialists will cut and blacken the ice, and two teams of field engineers will explode ice in 53 locations, where ice rocks may get stuck.
Press service of the regional agency for civil safety reports the preventive works on ice are underway on the Aldan, Amga and Lena rivers, where ice rocks got stuck a year earlier. A mobile complex of the emergencies ministry is expected to begin working from April 15. It will use satellite imaging to monitor emergency areas.
"In case of necessary evacuation of people from the flooded areas, we plan to offer 252 temporary accommodation facilities sufficient for 25,000 people," the agency said. "We are equipping emergency teams with necessary means, instruments, materials and verify plans of action in the emergency situation."
The regional authorities have organized rescue, emergency-technical, medical, transport teams. The grouping unites 16,000 people and 2,000 units of equipment.
"We have plans of how to use the aviation, how to evacuate the people, to attract the forces and equipment, how to relocate the livestock," the press service added. "In the current epidemic situation, Rospotrebnadzor (consumer right watchdog) specialists inspect the accommodation facilities. Another important direction is to make sure all management is ready to work in the emergency situation. Thus, we have organized additional training."
Besides that, before the flood season begins, the local authorities organize evacuation of low-mobility residents.