MOSCOW, September 11. /TASS/. US washes hands in Ukraine conflict, leaves Kiev to shoulder consequences alone; Russia, China flex naval power in largest joint exercises since Soviet era; and Iran eyes return to nuclear deal, but US not so sure. These stories topped Wednesday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: US avoids accountability for Ukraine’s actions in conflict with Russia
Ukraine decides on its own how to act in the conflict with Russia, the US Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. According to the embassy, the US has not changed its stance about how Kiev can use American-supplied weapons. However, on Friday, the US President will talk with the UK Prime Minister about allowing the Ukrainian armed forces to attack Russia with long-range weapons, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the day before. Experts interviewed by Izvestia suggest that even if the US lifts the ban, they will continue to claim no involvement in any potential strikes.
"Ukraine makes decisions on how to defend itself against Russian aggression," the US Embassy in Russia told Izvestia, answering a question about whether the US is ready to allow the Ukrainian army to hit Russian territory, adding that nothing has changed with regard to its recommendations to Ukraine on where and how they can use American weapons to defend themselves.
After the start of the special military operation, some NATO countries made military supplies contingent on Kiev promising not to use Western weapons to strike deep into Russia. However, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on September 10 that on Friday US President Joe Biden intends to discuss lifting the ban on long-range strikes on Russia with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
"I don’t think that the US is distancing itself from the issue of long-range strikes, on the contrary, it is pushing this issue. And, most likely, this week an official decision will be made that strikes with American long-range missiles deep into the internationally recognized territory of Russia are permitted," Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Dmitry Suslov told Izvestia.
But even if the US lifts the ban, it will continue to deny involvement in any strikes, experts believe. Another thing is also interesting - how Washington will behave in the event of a potential Republican takeover, Izvestia writes.
"They do not want to leave this decision to the next administration. At the same time, the probability that the next administration, whatever it may be, will reverse this decision is extremely low," Dmitry Suslov believes.
Vedomosti: Russia, China kick off largest joint naval exercises in three decades
On September 10, the Russian Navy began the Ocean-2024 strategic command and staff exercise, which will last until September 16. The maneuvers will take place in the waters of the Pacific and Arctic Oceans, the Mediterranean, the Caspian Sea, and the Baltic Sea. They will include more than 400 ships, submarines and support vessels, about 120 aircraft and helicopters of the Naval Air Force and the Aerospace Forces, as well as 7,000 units of weapons and equipment, and over 90,000 troops. Groups from Russia and China will practice how to defend maritime communications and areas of maritime economic activity. According to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, the revival of such Cold War-era practices can be linked with the escalation of relations with the United States.
Large-scale naval exercises like this were a regular feature of the USSR. Ocean-2024 is a throwback to Cold War times amid today's growing escalation between major powers, Director of the HSE Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies Vasily Kashin told the newspaper.
Such high-level exercises are planned well in advance, especially considering that China is also involved, as long as a year prior, Kashin added. Russia and China were particularly concerned by the almost simultaneous deployment of American medium-range missiles on the Danish island of Bornholm and in the Philippines and Moscow subsequently expressed its readiness to manufacture the same missiles, Kashin said.
At the same time, the Russian military currently maintains significant naval capabilities, but with a number of limitations, primarily quantitative, research fellow at the Center for Strategic Planning Studies at IMEMO RAS Ilya Kramnik noted. In particular, its fleet is not large enough to be present in all key areas needed to contain US activities effectively. Nevertheless, such drills are a good chance to showcase one’s capabilities, and the Ocean exercises have always been held in the open sea in international waters, the analyst added.
The main difference between the current exercises and the Soviet ones is the participation of China, which has the largest fleet in the world in terms of number. The maneuvers show the US how strong the Russia-China alliance is and that the balance of power is shifting, the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Iran nuclear deal in limbo as Tehran ready for talks, Washington not
Iran is ready to resume dialogue on its nuclear program, but the US does not want to meet its obligations under the existing agreement, Russian ambassador to Tehran Alexey Dedov told Izvestia. Observers associate the appointment of former Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Javad Zarif and other career diplomats who participated in the conclusion of the nuclear deal in 2015 to high posts in the republic's government with Tehran's desire to return to the talks, Izvestia writes.
"We see a willingness of the new government of Masoud Pezeshkian to work on discussing the situation surrounding Iran's nuclear program with the goal of lifting sanctions on the country and improving its economic situation. This is evidenced by recent statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Iran has always been ready for such steps," the Russian ambassador told the newspaper.
The diplomat noted that the problem lies with the Western participants in the nuclear deal, "who in recent years have sabotaged the negotiation process and the conclusion of relevant agreements." "Now, it is the West that is not ready for serious talks with Iran," the ambassador said.
Washington is most likely to postpone the nuclear dossier until the presidential election. Moreover, both the Republicans and Democrats have strong anti-Iranian sentiments, so the US Congress cannot be expected to agree to resume dialogue on the nuclear deal now, Izvestia writes.
Jamal Wakim, professor at the Lebanese University, told Izvestia that the main problem is the US desire to contain Iran. Washington wants Iran to abandon its alliances in the region, including the resistance in Iraq, Syria, support for Hezbollah and Ansar Allah, so the US will hinder these negotiations, especially if Donald Trump is elected, he added.
Russian ambassador to Tehran Alexey Dedov also believes that any prospects or lack thereof will be more or less clear after the presidential election in the US.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russia, Uzbekistan eye partnership in drone manufacturing
Russia has proposed launching the production of civilian UAVs and their components in Uzbekistan, as well as setting up production of high-tech polymers and creating production facilities in the field of railway engineering. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin put forward these proposals in Tashkent at a meeting of the joint commission of the heads of government of the two countries. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that cooperation with Russia in the defense sphere may be complicated by sanctions, but Uzbekistan is ready for this, seeing this sphere as of the utmost importance.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin met with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on September 10. The countries are actively developing economic cooperation - Russia is one of Uzbekistan’s leading trade partners. Mishustin noted that in the first half of the year mutual trade turnover increased by almost 9% and amounted to 412 bln rubles ($4.53 bln).
"The visit of the Russian Prime Minister to Tashkent was a logical continuation of the state visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to Uzbekistan at the end of May this year. This visit defined the key areas of development in relations between Russia and Uzbekistan, and also influences broader Eurasian relations," Director of the Man'o Research Initiatives Center in Tashkent Bakhtiyor Ergashev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
The most intriguing aspect of the Uzbekistan - Russia talks was preliminary negotiations on joint production of unmanned aerial vehicles. "It has not yet been determined whether these UAVs will be for military or civilian purposes. But earlier the issue of creating a joint production for the assembly of aircraft was discussed with Turkey. Which of these projects - Russian or Turkish - will be implemented is still unclear," the expert said, adding that "Tashkent understands that cooperation with Russia in the defense sphere may entail certain difficulties related to sanctions".
Alexander Pritchin, Head of the Central Asia Sector at IMEMO RAS, believes that the risks of secondary sanctions for Uzbekistan in connection with cooperation with Russia in the field of railway engineering and drone production are minimal. From a technological point of view, this is a very important area for Uzbekistan, the expert believes. "Interaction in this sphere will be the first serious step in the development of technological cooperation between the two countries," the expert emphasized.
Vedomosti: Why Ukraine unblocked Lukoil's oil transit from Russia to Hungary
Ukraine agreed to transport oil to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline after Hungarian company MOL agreed to purchase it at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said. He explained that in this case the Ukrainian transit company carries out the transit of a European product and receives a market price for it. Experts told Vedomosti that supplies of Russian raw materials to Europe are inevitably inseparable from the dynamics of the Ukrainian conflict and attempts to resolve it.
In a statement on the Budapest Stock Exchange website on September 9, MOL announced that it had managed to agree on the resumption of oil transit from Russia through Ukraine via the Druzhba pipeline. Under the new mechanism, MOL Group will become the owner of the corresponding volumes of crude oil at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, where the southern branch of the transport line runs.
Budapest also considered transit options through other countries, such as Bulgaria. At the same time, since July, Lukoil's undelivered volumes have been replaced by Tatneft, which is not under Ukrainian sanctions.
Although the current decision was the simplest solution, the Hungarians were reluctant to accept it as they viewed it as a concession to Ukraine that could set a precedent for other concessions. This could lead to unfavorable consequences for Hungary amid other actions by Ukraine, such as sanctions against the Hungarian OTP Bank as a "sponsor of Russia in the war with Ukraine" and other similar actions. "Faced with the anti-Hungarian position of the European Commission, it was forced to solve the problem in the most straightforward way," expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government Igor Yushkov explained.
At the same time, it is impossible to ignore the fact that supplies of Russian raw materials to Europe are inseparable from what is going on in the Ukrainian conflict and attempts to resolve it, research fellow at the MGIMO Institute of International Relations Artem Sokolov told the newspaper. "In such conditions, the issue of hydrocarbons cannot be considered locally. And the situation will not change in the near future," he noted.
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