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Russia’s GDP grows by 1.4% in Q1 2025, falling short of forecast — Central Bank

According to the Bank of Russia, changes in inventories of material circulating assets and net exports made a negative contribution to GDP performance in Q1 2025

MOSCOW, August 6. /TASS/. Russia’s GDP expanded by 1.4% year-on-year in the Q1 of 2025, falling short of projections. Preliminary data for the Q2 point to a 1.8% increase, according to a commentary published by the Bank of Russia in relation to its medium-term forecast.

"GDP in the Q1 of 2025 grew by 1.4% year-on-year, which is below the Bank of Russia’s April 2025 forecast of 2.0%. Actual data for Q1 2025 indicate a more pronounced cooling of domestic demand than anticipated in April. However, the dynamics within the components of domestic demand were uneven: the slowdown in household and government consumption growth was more pronounced than expected, while gross fixed capital formation saw a more substantial increase than previously projected. Changes in inventories of material circulating assets and net exports made a negative contribution to GDP performance in Q1 2025," the commentary said.

It also noted that preliminary data indicate a 1.8% year-on-year GDP increase in the Q2, which is close to the April forecast of 1.9%. The Bank of Russia additionally forecasts GDP growth of 1.6% in the Q3 of 2025.

"In the Q3 of 2025, economic activity is expected to remain subdued, with the central point of the forecast range corresponding to a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 1.6%. In the Q4 of 2025, due in part to the high base effect from the Q4 of 2024 - when a sharp, temporary surge in production occurred in certain sectors - the annual GDP growth rate is projected to fall within the range of 0-1%. On average, GDP growth in 2025 is expected to range of 1-2%," the Bank of Russia added.

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