NEW DELHI, June 16. /TASS/. India is at a risk of collateral economic fallout and energy security, trade routes and commercial interests facing uncertainty amid the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
"The escalating hostilities and rising regional tensions are posing direct threats to India's strategic and economic links with West Asia," GTRI said in a report. India has strong trade ties both with Tehran and Tel Aviv, experts noted. In 2024-2025, Indian exports to Iran totaled $1.24 bln while imports amounted to over $440 mln. Supplies to Israel from India reached $2.15 bln in the same period, while deliveries from the country to the South Asian republic exceeded $1.6 bln.
Instability around the Strait of Hormuz, with nearly two-thirds of Indian crude oil and half of its LNG imports passing through it, is the key risk for India, according to GTRI. "Any closure or military disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would sharply increase oil prices, shipping costs, and insurance premiums - triggering inflation, pressuring the rupee, and complicating India’s fiscal management," analysts said.
In this respect, the Indian government must urgently review energy risk scenarios, diversify crude sourcing, and ensure strategic reserves are sufficient, GTRI experts said.
Overnight into June 13, Israel kicked off Operation Rising Lion aimed against Iran’s nuclear program. Iran retaliated in less than 24 hours. Israel and Iran exchanged strikes again on June 14 and in the early hours of June 15. Both parties reported casualties and damage, and admitted that a number of facilities had been hit, but said the damage was minor.