LONDON, June 24. /TASS/. Global energy markets have interpreted Iran’s missile strike on the US airbase in Qatar as a step toward de-escalating the conflict, Chief Economist at the consulting firm Rystad Energy Claudio Galimberti told TASS.
"Iran’s retaliatory response is now being perceived as a possible de-escalation move, with oil prices falling as energy markets react to a fluid situation. Secondary attention will turn to reactions across the Muslim world and among Iran’s traditional allies, including Russia and China," he said.
The expert noted that following the US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, developments in the energy sector could unfold along two potential scenarios. According to him, if US President Donald Trump’s statements about the destruction of Iranian nuclear sites are confirmed, Tehran may be compelled to pursue a "nuclear deal and eventually peace." "Such an outcome would reduce the likelihood of damage to oil and gas infrastructure, easing geopolitical risk premiums embedded in energy prices," the expert noted
"In the second scenario, Iran managed to secure its nuclear assets ahead of the strikes. If this is the case, further US-Israel military action becomes highly probable, diminishing the immediate chances of a diplomatic resolution. This path would heighten the risk to regional oil and gas infrastructure and drive prices higher as risk premiums rise," he added.
At the same time, Galimberti expressed doubt that Iran would dare to impose a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response to strikes by Israel and the United States. "A full blockade would be extremely difficult to execute and would require significant effort and coordination. China, Iran’s largest crude buyer, would be firmly opposed to such a move, given the severe impact it would have on its energy security and economic interests," he said.
The expert said that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz "would devastate its own economy, alienate China, its largest crude customer, and risk triggering massive military retaliation." "Instead, Iran is expected to continue gray-zone tactics such as cyberattacks, GPS interference and selective interdictions to increase operational risks without provoking a full-blown war," he added.