FACTBOX. On December 8, 2024, Syrian President Bashar Assad resigned and left the country. His last instruction was the handover of power should be peaceful, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. This happened after opposition militias entered Damascus 12 days after launching an offensive from the northwestern province of Idlib. TASS FACTBOX editors have compiled a factsheet giving a glimpse of the situation in Syria during Bashar Assad’s rule.
Bashar Assad's rise to power, first terms of his rule
Bashar Assad took over as the leader of the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR) in the summer of 2000 after the death of his father Hafez Assad, who had been at the helm of power since 1971. To enable Bashar Assad, who was 34 years old at that moment, to run for president, the People's Assembly (parliament) adopted constitutional amendments that lowered the age qualification for candidates from 40 years to 34. A conference of the ruling Baath Party proclaimed Assad "the leader of the party and the people" and nominated him as head of state. On July 10, his candidacy as the sole presidential candidate was approved in a popular referendum, with 97% of the electorate voting in his favor. On July 17, 2000, he took office for a 7-year term. In May 2007, Assad was re-elected for a second term, receiving the support of 97.6% of voters.
Assad began his rule with a series of reforms. Independent newspapers began to be published, non-profit and human rights organizations and non-governmental universities cropped up, and private banks and the stock market opened. However, under the influence of conservative political circles, Assad did not dare to further ease the authoritarian regime that had taken shape under his father. Censorship was soon resumed and campaigners for free elections and the lifting of the state of emergency (established in 1963) began to be persecuted and imprisoned.
Assad condemned the US invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. Washington imposed sanctions on Syria in 2004, accusing Damascus of supporting terrorism, developing weapons of mass destruction, and undermining the international community's efforts to stabilize Iraq, as well as of occupying Lebanon (Syria introduced troops into Lebanese territory in 1976 during the civil war). In March 2005, Assad withdrew his troops from Lebanon under pressure from the international community.
Beginning of civil war in 2011, first years of standoff with armed opposition
In March 2011, against the background of the Arab Spring (anti-government protests in Arab countries that began with protests in Tunisia in December 2010), mass demonstrations in support of the demand for the resignation of the president began in a number of cities in Syria, including Damascus, Aleppo, Hama, Deir ez-Zor and Deraa. According to experts, the discontent was caused by Assad's authoritarian rule and the dominance of the Alawite minority (10-12% of the population) in government organizations and the army. In an attempt to ease the protests, the Assad government agreed to a number of concessions. The state of emergency was lifted, a new constitution was adopted to establish a multi-party system and the holding of presidential elections on a contested basis (in 2014, Assad won 88% of the vote in the first such election and took office for a third time; under the new constitution, it was his first term). However, the measures taken failed to defuse the tensions. Anti-government demonstrations continued to eventually turn into an armed confrontation between government forces and various armed opposition groups. A civil war broke out. Political and military support for the opposition from outside - primarily from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, the United States and a number of EU countries - also contributed to the escalation of the conflict.
During the military confrontation in 2012-2014, several rounds of UN-mediated talks between the opposition and the Assad government were held in Geneva. The parties failed to reach an agreement on how to resolve the conflict. In the meantime, terrorist organizations, including the Islamic State (IS; banned in Russia) and Jabhat al-Nusra (now Hayat Tahrir al-Sham; banned in Russia), joined the fight against the government forces in Syria. By mid-2015, only about 20% of the territory remained under government control.
Russian Aerospace Force operations, stabilization in 2015-2020
Under these conditions, at the request of President Assad, operations by Russia’s Aerospace Forces began in Syria in September 2015. With Russian support the Syrian army regained about 70% of the country's territory. In the changed military situation, Russia, Turkey and Iran, which had considerable influence in Syria (Ankara supported Syrian opposition armed groups in northern Syria while Tehran provided military assistance to the Syrian government) initiated negotiations on a new platform - the Astana process. Officials from Damascus and representatives of the Syrian opposition ready for dialogue with the Assad government, were involved. Moscow, Ankara and Tehran became guarantors of a peace settlement. The negotiations brought tangible results in stabilizing the situation. In particular, agreements were reached on the establishment of de-escalation zones - territories where hostilities between government forces and armed opposition formations have ceased. With the participation of the three countries, it became possible to work out the principles of humanitarian demining and to form a working group on the release of detainees and hostages. The negotiations on the Astana platform contributed to improving the situation with humanitarian aid and creating conditions for the resumption of the political process in Syria. In addition, in 2019, a Constitutional Committee was established by the opposition and government representatives to draft amendments to the constitution on the future political structure of Syria.
By the end of the spring of 2020, the hot phase of hostilities in Syria was over. Most of the country was controlled by the government. The northwestern province of Idlib remained in the hands of the armed opposition and terrorists, including the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, while the eastern bank of the Euphrates River was held by Kurdish forces.
Syria under Assad in 2020-2024
In July 2020 and July 2024, Syria held parliamentary elections. In both cases more than 180 seats out of the 250 went to the Assad-led pro-government National Unity bloc (the remaining seats were held by independent candidates). In 2021, in the next presidential election, Assad was re-elected for a fourth term by a 95.1% majority vote.
After the end of the hot phase of the conflict, the political dialogue between the Syrian leadership led by Assad and the opposition brought about no political change. Assad abandoned political reforms. The last meeting of the Syrian Constitutional Committee was held in May 2022. The participants made no significant progress.
The socio-economic situation in Syria continued to be dire even though the cessation of active hostilities had been achieved. The sanctions imposed by the US and European countries contributed to this, among other things. The situation turned from bad to worse following the February 2023 earthquake, which claimed about 8,500 lives in Syria (another 14,500 people were injured).
According to World Bank data for 2023, 67% of Syria's population is poor, and 25% extremely poor (extreme poverty had been non-existent until 2011). The Syrian pound has depreciated by a factor of 50 from 2011 to 2024 (the current rate of exchange is over 2,500 pounds per dollar), annual consumer price inflation in recent years averaged 100% (in 2023 - 93%). In all, during the war years Syria's GDP, according to the WB, slumped by more than 50% from $55 billion to about $20 billion in 2010-2023. About 45% of the country's housing stock has been ruined (a quarter of it completely); about 40% of educational institutions and more than half of health care facilities have been put out of operation. According to various estimates, $250-400 billion is needed to rebuild the country. A total of 470,000 became victims of the conflict during the years of hostilities. The number of refugees stands at 5.6 million.