MOSCOW, February 21. /TASS/. The reason behind Biden's trip to Kiev, Iran is accused of developing weapons-grade uranium and Serbia does not plan sanctions against Russia. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Vedomosti: Biden visits Kiev to support regime, promise more aid
On the morning of February 20, US President Joe Biden paid a brief unannounced visit to Kiev on a side trip from Poland. As Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel, representatives of the US administration had informed the Russian leadership about the visit beforehand.
In Kiev, Biden expressed his support for Ukraine, held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky and, among other things, announced a rather modest $450 mln military aid package from the US to Kiev.
From the American point of view, Biden’s visit to Kiev should consolidate Ukraine’s political elite, says Director of the Institute for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology Denis Denisov. This is particularly important given the existing differences between the political and military leadership. According to Denisov, Washington demands that Ukraine advance at any cost but the army command is resisting this idea, being cognizant of the current problems on the frontline. So Biden is trying to use his visit to get Ukraine to align itself with the American understanding of strategy, not to mention the symbolic meaning of the visit, which plays an important role in a situation where the information component trumps the real state of affairs.
According to Alexey Naumov, an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, Biden’s visit also carries with it a certain rationale for US domestic policy. Biden will have to compete with Republicans who stand for a strong foreign policy and for the US’ active role on the international stage. According to the expert, Biden wants to present himself as a strong leader capable of leading America in the 21st century. Additionally, according to the expert, he wants to show Americans that the money provided to Kiev was not a waste.
Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, senior researcher at the Center for Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine says that the significance of Biden’s visit should not be overestimated - this is just another display of solidarity with Ukraine. It is not the Ukrainian leadership but the country’s general public that the US is trying to motivate. According to the expert, the Ukrainian issue is not as important for US domestic policy as it seems at first sight, so it is unlikely that Biden is trying to influence his electorate with his visit.
Vedomosti: Iran nuclear deal may fall apart over enriched uranium allegations
Iran has enriched uranium with isotope-235 to 84% which is not much less than the 90% necessary for weapons-grade uranium, Bloomberg reported overnight on February 20, citing diplomatic sources. According to them, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has already begun looking into the situation.
If this information is used to completely destroy the Iranian nuclear deal and break off relations between Iran and the IAEA, the resulting situation would be similar to the one in 2003, before the US attacked Iraq, says Director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov. Iran will be accused of developing nuclear weapons, as it already has the means to deliver them and all of this may lead to a dangerous attempt by Israel to resolve the issue of the Iranian nuclear program militarily, the expert thinks.
Over the past 20 years, Iran has substantially increased both its defensive and offensive capabilities, says editor of the Military Russia portal Dmitry Kornev. While the country has a rich arsenal of air defense systems, it is unlikely to withstand a potential combined strike from Israel and the US, the expert assumes. He reiterated that these two countries are capable of delivering surgical strikes to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, and Israel has already conducted similar operations in Iraq, for instance, in the 1980s.
According to Russian International Affairs Council Director General Andrey Kortunov, the prospects for reviving the Iranian nuclear deal became quite uncertain by the end of 2022 and some freak accident could be the last straw in killing it both de facto and de jure. In this case, it is possible that the issue will be resolved by force, the expert thinks, but it depends on to what extent Israel can rely on the US and how the two countries assess Iran’s defensive capabilities.
Research Fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at MGIMO Adlan Margoev noted that information on the state of the Iranian nuclear program is being leaked to the press more often, creating a negative information atmosphere around Iran. According to him, if representatives of Iran and the IAEA can discuss these issues professionally, transparently and fully, there is still a chance to revive the nuclear deal. If the technical dialogue is interrupted, there is a risk that the coalition of anti-Iranian countries in the IAEA Board of Governors will create another crisis around the nuclear program similar to the one in February 2006. Back then, the IAEA sent Iran’s nuclear dossier to the UN Security Council and subsequent events led to large-scale sanctions against the country, the expert reiterated.
Izvestia: Serbia has no plans to sanction Russia
The Serbian government is not getting ready to introduce sanctions against Russia, the country’s parliament assured Izvestia. Earlier, it was reported that the republic’s President Aleksandar Vucic gave the green light to join the restrictions amid Western pressure while the government began readying its first sanctions package. It was also noted that a visa regime may be introduced in March. The Russian Embassy in Serbia said that during recent high-level meetings, it had received no such indications from Belgrade.
As Program Coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council Milan Lazovic told the newspaper, the West is putting significant pressure on Belgrade, as evidenced by meetings between the head of state and EU officials who rather frequently visit Serbia to hold talks, including on the Kosovo issue. That said, cooperation with Moscow is extremely important for Belgrade. Not only do traditionally friendly and fraternal ties play a role here but also economic and investment issues as well as political support provided by Russia, the expert reiterated.
However, Western pressure may eventually erode Belgrade’s resistance and their introducing sanctions may well be expected in the foreseeable future, the expert thinks. Lazovic forecasted that such a decision will adversely impact bilateral relations between Moscow and Belgrade but no "super-negative reaction" on the part of Russia is expected. According to the expert, Moscow has repeatedly stated that it is aware of the amount of pressure put on Serbia and appreciates the fact that Belgrade has not introduced any sanctions since 2014. Lazovic thinks that if the sanctions are introduced after all, the Russian side will treat the situation with understanding.
Kommersant: Gas exports to EU return to 2022 levels
The transit of Russian gas via Ukraine continues to grow as contract prices get closer to spot prices on the European market. Currently, the majority of Gazprom’s deliveries on long-term contracts are being sold at relatively low January quotes. That said, spot gas prices stopped sliding ahead of an expected cold snap in some parts of Europe at the end of the week and due to a forecasted decrease in wind power generation.
According to independent expert Alexander Sobko, as the price peaks of late summer-early fall recede into the past, contracted deliveries with the price averaged over an extended period will become cheaper and, therefore, more in demand. "However, the cost of Gazprom’s deliveries still reflects the high prices of previous periods and therefore it is slightly higher than current market prices in the EU," he noted.
The prospects of growing demand for gas in Europe against the background of lower prices are mixed at the moment. While gas prices have dropped, prices for nitrogen fertilizers plummeted by 15-20%, the expert added. As a result, European fertilizer manufacturers still need to calculate the difference between the price of the product and the cost of raw materials before deciding to boost production volumes.
Kommersant: Chisinau plans to demilitarize Transnistria, keep it from separating
Amid large-scale combat in Ukraine, the unrecognized Republic of Transnistria which borders it found itself in a new and unpleasant reality for its government. The risks that the dormant conflict on the Dniester may be unfrozen have increased. Chisinau has openly stated that this territory should be demilitarized, which involves both the withdrawal of Russian troops and the disarmament of local militants. The Kremlin has already cautioned Moldova to be more careful in its statements on Transnistria.
In early February, the Moldovan parliament approved amendments to the country’s Criminal Code introducing both the notion of "separatism" and liability for "separatist actions, that is, actions committed with the aim to separate a part of the Republic of Moldova’s territory." The country’s President Maia Sandu approved the amendments which will go into effect in a month.
One way or another, the law has already created a new reality in which various options are possible. The first one is that the new law does not actually change anything and none of Tiraspol’s officials will be persecuted for separatism. The second option can be that the Transnistrian officials will live in the mode of a besieged fortress, not leaving the republic’s territory for fear of being captured and prosecuted. In this case, all talks with Chisinau will be held only in Transnistria or suspended altogether which, under the conditions of an unresolved conflict, increases the risk of the situation on the Dniester exploding. The third scenario is the detainment of any Transnistrian official by Moldova’s law enforcement which would lead to an escalation with unpredictable consequences.
There is a fourth hypothetical scenario which politicians and experts in Kiev bring up from time to time, involving Ukraine’s armed forces helping Chisinau establish control over Transnistria.
All these options won’t necessarily be implemented but the hostilities on Ukrainian soil together with Chisinau’s desire to prevent both the militarization and separation of Transnistria make these scenarios not that improbable.
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