Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Kiev’s pursuit of deal with Moscow turns out to be key achievement
The Istanbul-hosted negotiations that gripped the Russian Internet on Tuesday were not the beginning of Russia giving up its positions, as many Russians thought following a statement by Moscow’s delegation head Vladimir Medinsky, but the start of a real dialogue between Russia and Ukraine. On Wednesday, the chief Russian negotiator clarified that the issues of Crimea and Donbass, as proposed by Ukraine, could be discussed between both presidents. He specified that Moscow’s position on these issues remained unchanged though the talks are continuing. The Russian Ministry of Defense noted that its advance in some directions had stopped because of the regrouping of troops.
Director General of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Dmitry Orlov told the newspaper that any drawdown of forces before an agreement is signed is unlikely. "In Istanbul, Russia’s emissaries talked about reducing troop activity in some directions under certain conditions of intensity. This strategy has been stated, and it is already being used and is likely to be used in the future," he elaborated. Commenting on the discussion as to whether Moscow made too many concessions to Kiev’s delegates at once, the expert noted that Russia’s stance at the talks can be hardly called a "concession." He thinks that this is a means of encouraging Kiev to undertake steps that Moscow is interested in. In his assessment, the timeframe of signing any future final documents will depend mostly on how Kiev’s stance on Crimea and Donbass further develops. The expert suggested that the coordination process would take no more than 2-3 weeks.
China repeatedly stated that it was ready to provide humanitarian aid and become a key investor in helping Ukraine recuperate once the critical phase of the conflict is over, Alexey Maslov, a top Russian expert on Asia, told the newspaper. Additionally, Ukraine is important as far as transportation corridors to Europe are concerned. And in case of a successful settlement, China may participate in building roads, warehouses and other facilities in Ukraine. Here, a lot will depend on how soon the situation is settled. Yet, this doesn’t mean that Beijing may join the talks as a third party, the expert noted.
Orlov suggested that different players might get involved in the talks, including China. However, Russia is not likely to accept any mediation that would in any way limit its interests at the negotiations.
Kommersant: Europe bracing to live without Russian gas
The fate of Russian gas deliveries to Europe which weren’t stopped even at the height of the Cold War remains uncertain. Major European countries turned down Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand to pay in rubles and are now living in fear of looming shutdowns. On March 30, Germany and Austria declared a level one emergency situation in the sphere of gas supplies.
Russia’s authorities need to lay out a mechanism of switching gas payments to rubles by March 31. Simultaneously, Gazprom, according to the newspaper’s sources, is also working out a scenario of halting the deliveries.
Nowadays, every country has a blueprint of preventive actions allowing for the early warning mechanisms and an emergency plan. "These plans include both market measures, particularly, a requirement for suppliers to quickly seek alternatives, as well as direct government involvement by requiring companies to stop gas supplies to industrial facilities," Maria Belova of Vygon Consulting noted. The expert specified that such plans had emerged after the 2009 gas crisis when the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine was suspended for several days.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China seeks to bolster relations with Russia
Talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi were held in China’s Anhui Province. There, the top diplomats exchanged views on Ukraine. The Russian diplomat talked about the progress of Russia’s military operation and the negotiation process with Ukraine. Wang Yi emphasized that relations between Russia and China had weathered new trials. Earlier in Beijing, the Chinese diplomat did not say whether China was ready to become a guarantor of a peace agreement between Moscow and Kiev, yet Beijing would facilitate the settlement using its own methods. It will probably team up with Switzerland. That said, Beijing rejected Washington’s demands to join the anti-Russian sanctions.
Alexander Lukin, who heads the International Affairs Department at the Higher School of Economics said that China would resolve the issue of becoming one of the guarantors of an agreement with Ukraine "in accordance with its traditional stance - it is necessary to approve agreements at the United Nations and the UN Security Council. In this case, China may agree to this. And if this option is suggested to it by a group of countries it is hardly likely to approve this. The responsibility for this step is too great."
Responding to a question as to whether it is possible to trust China’s assurances of its solid policy with regards to Russia, the expert noted: "China can’t afford a weakened Russia. It does not want to remain one-on-one with the West. So it is possible to take Wang Yi’s words seriously."
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: OPEC+ may deep-six EU’s scheme to limit imports of Russian oil
If the March 31 OPEC+ meeting doesn’t decide to boost production above the earlier approved limit then the statements by European politicians about rejecting Russian oil will become meaningless.
Oil is lacking on the global market, mostly due to a forced export reduction from Russia while only some suppliers can compensate the gap in volume. All of them participate in OPEC+ together with Russia. Despite US pressure, Russia’s partners in the oil deal, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have already stated that the alliance won’t undertake any actions with regards to Russia under political pressure. Meanwhile, oil prices have been at their peak since 2014 for a month.
Globally, no accelerated increase in production is needed, according to Alexander Kurdin, an expert at the Russian Government's Analysis Center. In his opinion, a price hike due to political factors and accompanying logistics problems is noticeable yet in this situation it is logical for it to be cushioned by the importing states and they do have instruments for this such as using strategic oil supplies. On the whole, in the first quarter the global oil market is balanced and this is what OPEC+ members take into account above all. Due to this, it is unlikely that they will try to achieve certain figures by April or May, supporting market stability is more important to them, the expert noted.
Currently, the oil prices are quite comfortable for OPEC+ members and the additional increase in production may substantially lower them, according to Deputy Head of the Economy of the Fuel and Energy Complex Sectors of the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) Sergey Kolobanov. Many large producers are experiencing major pressure from the US and the EU who are urging them to increase production to compensate the imminent missing volumes due to restrictions on deliveries from Russia. However, in addition to the UAE, only Saudi Arabia has substantial reserve capacities to quickly increase production and this country has not yet openly submitted to Western pressure, the expert pointed out.
Kommersant: Washington relaxes sanctions on agricultural sector products
After a month-long barrage of sanctions against Russia, the US has decided to take precautions against a deficit of chemical products. It equated Russian fertilizers to basic-needs products to prevent them from being blacklisted. The market is positive that Europe will do the same which would fix traditional delivery patterns.
Maria Lyubimova who heads the international arbitrage and trans-border disputes department at the Regionservis law firm notes that the US green light here indicates that earlier measures on the complete blocking of economic exchange between Russia and the US can be relaxed, above all, in highly vulnerable sectors.
The expert pointed out that the events of the past month have lucidly demonstrated the instability of any legal constructs and the possibility of reviewing any previously concluded agreements in all spheres. Therefore, she added, this decision may be reversed just as swiftly as it was made.
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