ST. PETERSBURG, June 20. /TASS/. Annual inflation is expected to reach the target level of 4% in the second half of 2026, closer to the end of the year, Director of the Monetary Policy Department at the Bank of Russia Andrey Gangan told reporters on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)
"The current pace of price growth, when annualized, will be close to 4% by the end of this year. This means that from that point onward, inflation will be roughly aligned with our target. For the full year 2026, the rate will be 4%. <…> A stable year-on-year inflation rate of 4% will, of course, be observed closer to the end of 2026, in the second half of the year," he said.
Commenting on current inflation, Gangan noted that monthly price dynamics may fluctuate slightly above or below the average. "In fact, there is no stable trend toward either a decrease or an increase at the moment. This is actually a point of concern for the Central Bank. In a situation where current price growth rates are declining, and if that decline were stable, we would typically expect to see a drop in household inflation expectations. But we are not seeing that," he added.
Gangan stated that the Russian economy is currently in a phase of slowing growth, but there are no signs of a recession. "We believe that we are in a stage of economic growth deceleration, and so far, economic activity is unfolding in line with our forecast for 2025. The forecast we issued in April, from 1% to 2%, does not yet appear to us as validated," he said.
At the same time, moderate steps toward lowering the key interest rate are justified under current conditions, though such steps may vary. "The trajectory is what matters, so the steps may differ. In a situation marked by uncertainty and a variety of risks, moderate actions are entirely justified and may be on the table. Everything will depend on how current trends align with and confirm our forecast. Therefore, the trajectory and specific measures will be shaped by that data," he emphasized.
About the forum
The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) is taking place on June 18-21. This year, the event is held under the theme "Shared Values: The Foundation of Growth in a Multipolar World." Thematic zones such as the ‘Territory of Innovations’ and the national brand space ‘Buy Russian!’ will operate at the Forum.
The program includes the SME Forum, the Creative Industries Forum, the Day of the Future International Youth Economic Forum, the Drug Security Forum, and the Roscongress Urban Hub discussion platform. As part of the cultural program, the Petersburg Seasons festival will be held, and the SPIEF Sports Games will take place.
The Roscongress Foundation is the organizer of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. TASS is its information partner.