MOSCOW, June 5. /TASS/. Surveys conducted among Russia’s largest companies indicate that the objective of preventing the economy from overheating, a goal that prompted the Central Bank to initiate a cycle of interest rate hikes last year, has now been achieved, President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Alexander Shokhin told TASS.
"We conduct regular surveys of [RSPP member] companies, and it’s clear that the rationale behind raising the key rate has largely materialized. Namely, the goal was to protect the economy from overheating. Last year’s economic growth rate approaching 4.5% was viewed by both the government and the Central Bank as indicative of overheating. A policy aimed at gradually cooling the economy and ensuring a soft landing was announced. By the end of last year, we assumed this approach would moderate the rapid pace of growth and simultaneously bring inflation down," Shokhin explained.
According to him, the intention was not necessarily to achieve the 4% inflation target by mid-2025.
"Nevertheless, the goal was to establish a steady downward trend in inflation. That has been accomplished: the economy has been cooled. Moreover, there is now a risk of overcooling, as GDP growth in the first quarter was just slightly above 1%. However, we believe, as we emphasized during the RSPP Congress, that a growth rate of 2-2.5% represents the minimum threshold required to achieve national development goals in 2025, 2026, and 2027. The Ministry of Economic Development’s forecast, which aligns with this 2.5% target and is supported by the government, is fully acceptable to us," Shokhin added.