MOSCOW, April 1. /TASS/. Raw diamond prices may increase in the second half of 2025 if the record-high demand for jewelry with diamonds is sustained and the pressure of accumulated inventories with diamond cutters becomes lower, Alfa-Bank analyst Boris Krasnozhenov told TASS.
"Currently, according to estimates from industry sources, raw diamond inventories of cutters will be enough for six months of trading, which is double historical figures. Industry sources estimate global mining to be within 85-95 mln carats in 2024 and 2025, because marginal producers (about 20% of global volumes) begin making losses at such levels of raw diamond prices even at the variable costs level," Krasnozhenov said.
Raw diamond mining declines globally due to the excess of cutters’ inventories, the expert said. "This is related to record-high sales of rough diamonds at the turn of 2020, amid raw diamond prices’ rise by 80% in 2021-2022, and to purchases of Indian cutters amid concerns of sanction restrictions announced by the Group of Seven in early 2024," he noted.
Contraction of mining is at the same time a good signal for the market, the expert said. "The epoch of readily available raw diamonds is over," he added.
The first half of this year is highly likely not to see any significant changes in the diamond market, and the rise in prices can be expected in the second six months of 2024 if the current consumer demand is maintained and the pressure from raw diamond stock of Indian cutters becomes smaller, the analyst said. "It is important to note that the demand for jewelry with diamonds after the pandemic remains historically high. Strong end demand provides certain growth for positive expectations on situation development in the sector," he added.