MOSCOW, March 13. /TASS/. Countries that have the highest exposure to implications from closing of the Strait of Hormuz will be the most interested in Russian oil having the carveout from sanctions, experts questioned by TASS say.
The countries that suffer most from the strait closing will buy Russian oil in the first instance, Sergey Kaufman from Finam said. "India will have the strongest incremental growth of imports, which may increase it to last fall levels (over 1.5 mln barrels per day). From our point of view, plenty of Asia-Pacific countries importing oil or petroleum products via the Strait of Hormuz will show interest in Russian oil. This refers to Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India, Vietnam, Myanmar, and this is not the full list," he noted.
The advantage of a portion of Russian oil with softened sanction is the fact it is already afloat and can be delivered quickly, Kaufman said. "It means from our viewpoint that the demand for it will be high and the Urals discount will actually drop to zero in ports of destination, although it will hardly be lower than $12-15 a barrel in Russian ports because of very expensive carriage," the analyst added.
Asian countries, particularly China and India, are the main ones to show interest in Russian oil, Kirill Bakhtin from BCS Investment World said. The majority of loaded tankers is already in the region and these countries suffered more from interruptions in supplies from Persian Gulf countries, he noted. "If the ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be restricted, the demand for Russian oil will be higher despite sanctions, which will also lead to a lower discount for Russian oil," Bakhtin added.