MOSCOW, January 1. /TASS/. On the morning of January 1, the transit of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine was completely stopped due to Kiev's refusal to extend the agreement. The European Union may lose about 30% of pipeline gas import from Russia.
Over the last three years, about 15-20 billion cubic meters of gas has been pumped through the Ukrainian gas pipeline system to Europe, Alexey Bobrovsky, the director of the Institute for the Study of World Markets, has told TASS. Without the Ukrainian route, Russia's gas traffic to the EU will slump to 39 billion cubic meters per year, the expert predicts. In turn, Europe will see a further reduction in gas consumption and a shift to other energy sources, including coal.
According to TASS calculations, the total export of gas from Russia through the pipeline to Europe (including Turkey) for the past year may reach about 52 billion cubic meters against 49 billion cubic meters a year earlier. At the end of 2024, the transit through Ukraine exceeded 15.4 billion cubic meters. The European region may lose up to 30% of its pipeline gas from Russia.
Earlier, Gazprom said that Ukraine’s refusal to extend the agreement on the transit of Russian gas through its territory to Europe stripped it of the technical and legal opportunity to supply fuel by this route. The pumping was stopped at 8:00 am Moscow time (5:00 am GMT) on January 1. Data from European gas transportation operators also confirm the end of supplies to Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Italy and Moldova along this route.
At the same time, fuel flows through the station on the border of Turkey and Bulgaria (the onshore extension of Turk Stream) remain stable, which indicates there is no redirection of part of Russian gas supplies to Europe along this route. Earlier, polled experts told TASS that Gazprom had an opportunity to increase pumping towards Europe by 4-6 billion cubic meters per year through the Turk Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines, because their throughput could be increased in a relatively short period of time. However, complete reorientation of gas flows is out of the question.
The worst impact of a complete cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine from 2025 will be on Austria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Italy and Moldova, which will have to buy more expensive LNG or increase coal consumption. For Moldova, and especially for Transnistria, an end to the transit even for a week would mean an unprecedented general energy crisis: it has no economic alternative to gas supplies from Russia, nor does it have any reserves of this fuel. The country has already switched to electricity supplies from Romania after the Moldovan TPP, which was running on Russian gas, reduced output.
Gas transit through Ukraine
The agreement on the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory expired on January 1. It provided for the pumping of 40 billion cubic meters annually. However, Ukraine's refusal to extend the agreement deprived Gazprom of the technical and legal opportunity to deliver fuel by this route. The traffic was halted on the morning of January 1. Russian President Vladimir Putin said there would be no new contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, as there was no chance of renegotiating the agreement a few days before the New Year. Kiev also announced its intention to stop the transportation of Russian gas.
At the same time, Ukraine is ready to resume deliveries through its gas transportation system at the request of the European Commission, if it will not be Russian gas. The Russian president mentioned the possibility of concluding contracts for delivery through third contractors - Turkish, Hungarian, Slovak and Azerbaijani companies. In such a case, the most reasonable arrangement would be a transfer of ownership of gas on the border between Russia and Ukraine. The gas would be transferred to a new owner and the fuel to be pumped through Ukrainian territory would not be Russian. The pumping itself would take place within the framework of auctions, in which European companies would participate.