MOSCOW, August 31. /TASS/. The supply and demand balance on the oil market will shift to the surplus in supplies of 2.5 mln barrels daily, with the increase to 4.5 mln barrels per day in case demand rates slow down. Such forecast is contained in papers of the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee seen by TASS.
Two scenarios for the oil market are discussed in papers. The base case provides OPEC+ will continue restoring oil production by 0.4 mln barrels per day monthly. In this case, the market will still experience shortage until the end of 2021, estimated at 0.9 mln barrels per day.
The Technical Committee expects the supply surplus to emerge since 2022, which can be 2.5 mln barrels per day in average across 2022, while inventories will be 264 mln barrels above the average 5-year level. An alternative scenario anticipating deceleration of demand growth assumes that the surplus of 0.4 mln barrels per day may occur in this year and grow to 4.5 mln barrels daily in the next year.
OPEC+ ministers will discuss oil production plans for coming months at their meeting on September 1.