TUNIS, April 9. /TASS/. Iran remains unwavering in its support for its ideological, political, and religious ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah. According to Tunisian military analyst Abdel Hamid Mahfouzi, the prospects of a lasting ceasefire between Tehran and Washington hinge largely on deterring Israeli aggression and preventing attacks on the Shiite movement. Mahfouzi told TASS that the declared two-week ceasefire, while a positive step, "still carries a fragile veneer."
He outlined key variables influencing the ceasefire’s durability: the effectiveness of regional mediators, the resolution of tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and robust deterrence against Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s regional allies. Additionally, he emphasized that Iran’s core demands - such as the recognition of its right to nuclear energy, agreement on specific enrichment levels, and compensation for damages to Iranian infrastructure - must be addressed.
Mahfouzi pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly asserted his intention to maintain operational freedom on the Lebanese front. This, he warns, could be a significant factor threatening the stability of the ceasefire. "Israeli arrogance and unilateral actions may very well lead to its collapse," the analyst said, underscoring Iran’s firm stance not to abandon its Lebanese allies.
Looking ahead, Mahfouzi expressed skepticism about the prospects for sustainable peace, suggesting that the current ceasefire is merely a tentative step toward de-escalation. He argued that genuine stability would require a fundamental reshaping of the international order - one centered on Russia and China - and the end of American hegemony. "At this stage, what we see is just a declared ceasefire, not a peace treaty," he noted.
He also criticized US adherence to international agreements, citing repeated violations during negotiations with Iran. Mahfouzi recounted instances where, despite reaching agreements, the United States swiftly broke its commitments - highlighting attacks in June 2025 and February of this year, occurring under circumstances reminiscent of ongoing negotiations. "US policy exhibits inconsistency, with a stark gap between its words and actions," he said, pointing out that Washington’s rhetoric has shifted from threats to appeals for ceasefire, all while demanding compliance from Iran in violation of international law.
"America does not comply with international law, but demands that the Iranian side do so," the expert believes.
Ceasefire
On April 7, US President Donald Trump announced a two-week mutual ceasefire with Iran, claiming that most contentious issues had been resolved and that Tehran’s 10-point proposals offered a constructive framework for further talks. Trump cited Iran’s willingness to facilitate the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as a key factor in his decision. Iran, for its part, agreed to halt "defensive attacks" contingent upon not being attacked.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, acting as a mediator, has scheduled direct talks between the parties for April 10. Iranian state television reports that these negotiations will be held directly.