Vedomosti: Kremlin finds US response to security proposals unsatisfactory
Russia is not satisfied with the written response to its proposals on security guarantees that the US and NATO provided on January 26. They failed to show willingness to take Moscow’s concerns about NATO’s eastward expansion into account, the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry said. Still, Russia remains hopeful that dialogue will continue and does not rule out discussions of non-essential issues though Moscow believes it won’t be viable in isolation from an agreement on the common European security architecture, Vedomosti writes.
The West’s refusal to give political concessions to Russia was predictable, Director of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Foundation for United States Studies at Moscow State University Yury Rogulev pointed out. It is too early to talk about possible de-escalation because for Moscow, de-escalation means that NATO should return to the 1997 borders, while the United States’ position is vague. According to the expert, Washington’s demand that Russian troops be withdrawn from Russia’s own soil is unclear so it’s quite hard to maintain dialogue on de-escalation along these lines.
However, despite Russia’s dissatisfaction with the US and NATO’s response, it is too early to give up on dialogue itself, the analyst noted. Moscow has never said that it’s reluctant to hold negotiations, Rogulev explained. Russia will abandon dialogue only if it’s not substantive or turns into Moscow having to just listen to the US position. But if Western partners are willing to take Moscow’s stance into consideration, Russia will continue talks, particularly on the issues that it finds non-essential, the expert emphasized.
If there is political will, de-escalation is possible even after the West provided a response like that, Russian International Affairs Council Director General Andrey Kortunov stressed. According to him, any measures aimed at building trust between the parties or making an agreement on certain types of weapons in Europe will have a positive impact on the political environment.
Attempts to politicize the Ukraine issue run counter to the economic interests of both Russia and Europe, Russian Permanent Representative to the European Union Vladimir Chizhov said in an interview with Izvestia.
"As for raising tensions around Ukraine, I would like to point out that it’s not the first time that Kiev is doing it, particularly in a bid to preserve Russian gas transit through the country by all available means. Attempts to politicize the Ukraine issue run counter to the economic interests of both our country and the EU and are harmful to businesses and regular folks," he told the newspaper.
Chizhov noted that stable Russian gas supplies to the EU benefited both parties. "For Russia, it is certainly about export revenues, and as for the European Union, it should take its energy and climate goals into account," the envoy stressed. According to him, the EU plans to continue using natural gas as a transition energy source until 2030 and even beyond, until 2050. "Stable supplies of relatively cheap Russian gas based on long-term contracts are in line not only with the EU’s commercial interests, but also with political ones," Chizhov stressed.
"I would like to reiterate that Russia is not taking any steps to raise tensions around Ukraine. Accordingly, the possibility of an escalating situation there and new sanctions against Russia depends primarily on the wisdom and pragmatism of the Europeans," the Russian permanent representative stated.
Chizhov also said that the projects that were currently underway, including the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, served the interests of companies and investors and would benefit European consumers in the future. "We expect that our Western partners will refrain from politicizing energy cooperation further and won’t shoot themselves in the foot," the Russian envoy added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: India seeks to edge China out of Central Asia
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held his first summit with the leaders of five Central Asian nations, which took place online due to the coronavirus pandemic. The parties agreed to boost economic and cultural ties and coordinate their activities regarding the situation in Afghanistan. Chinese President Xi Jinping had invited the five post-Soviet countries for a video conference two days earlier, promising significant aid to them and an increase in trade to $70 bln. New Delhi doesn’t have that kind of money but enjoys certain advantages based on its traditionally close ties with the region, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
In an address to the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Modi stated that the five countries and India shared the same goals and security concerns. New Delhi’s political principle is to expand its circle of good neighbors.
Professor Sergey Lunev from Moscow State Institute of International Relations points out that "India presents itself as an important player in Afghanistan and Central Asia." "It indeed has serious interests there. New Delhi expects to get access to the region’s energy resources, which was actually made clear 30 years ago. There were plans to establish communications through Iran’s Chabahar port and Afghanistan but in 2019, India took the US side in the standoff between Washington and Tehran, joining US sanctions," the expert explained.
China acts aggressively in the economic field, while Central Asian nations are sympathetic to India. However, China is unwilling to let India enter the region. New Delhi’s policy is totally in line with Russia’s interests but Moscow doesn’t want to interfere in the dispute between India and China, Lunev noted.
Izvestia: Oil prices may hit $100 per barrel
Brent crude price may hit $100 per barrel as early as in the first quarter of 2022, said experts interviewed by Izvestia. Geopolitical tensions between Russia, the United States and Ukraine, instability in the Middle East and declining concerns about the coronavirus pandemic are the main reasons for the price growth.
Oil prices may soar as high as $100 per barrel by the middle of the year, Executive Director of the Capital Market Department at Univer Capital Artem Tuzov pointed out. According to him, the European Union’s energy crisis may influence the situation. "The energy crisis in the EU and other countries hasn’t been resolved yet. Gas prices are still high and they are pushing oil prices up as oil is an alternative energy source," the expert stressed.
"Factors such as rising demand and limited supply favor oil price growth. Demand is rising as coronavirus restrictions are being lifted across the world, particularly as tourism and travel restrictions are easing. We may see Brent oil price hitting $100 per barrel this year," Alpari Deputy Director Natalya Milchakova noted.
The recent oil price surge is largely the result of a political standoff between the US and Russia, School of Practical Investment founder Fedor Sidorov emphasized. Some traders see the risk that Russia’s oil export may drop amid speculations of a looming conflict in Ukraine, he explained. If it really comes to the US imposing the sanctions that it announced, restrictions may directly affect Russian energy exports, which can send oil prices higher than $100, AMarkets Analytics Department Chief Artem Deyev said.
Kommersant: Russia sees rise in foreign retailers
More foreign retailers are entering Russia despite the coronavirus pandemic. Last year, their number rose by 15%, with most new brands being high-end ones. Demand for these sorts of goods are growing because solvent customers who used to shop overseas now have difficulties traveling, Kommersant writes.
New foreign brands are attracted to the Russian market because coronavirus restrictions on retailers are softer in Russia than in the West, Regional Director for Commercial Real Estate at Knight Frank Yevgenia Khakberdiyeva said. Franshiza.ru expert Anna Rozhdestvenskaya, in turn, pointed out that the activities of high-end brands stem from a drop in tourist and business trips to other countries. "Well-off consumers who used to travel to Europe for shopping now have to satisfy their demand inside the country," she noted.
Director of the Commercial Real Estate Department at JLL Polina Zhilkina expects that apart from new brands, the retailers that earlier folded their business in Russia may return to the country.
However, experts also point to political tensions in their forecasts. "In this regard, Russia is in a vulnerable position at the moment, first and foremost, as far as US brands are concerned," Rozhdestvenskaya said. Partner at the Vanchugov and Partners company Alexey Vanchugov does not rule out that if tensions continue to mount, those Western brands that have launched activities to enter the Russian market will change their mind.
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