LONDON, MOSCOW, May 6. /TASS/. An agreement between Iran and the United States to end the military conflict will not lead to a quick recovery of marine transportation of oil, Chief Oil Analyst at Rystad Energy Paola Rodriguez-Masiu told TASS.
"Even under an optimistic scenario involving a 30-day phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, meaningful volume recovery would happen in June at the earliest, with processing port arrivals lagging by an additional four to six weeks after that," the analyst said.
"Transit insurance markets need to reprice, vessel operators need verified and sustained access, and commercial confidence cannot be rebuilt overnight," she stressed.
"The six-to-eight-week lag between credible access conditions and real flow normalization is not a conservative estimate, it is a structural feature of how shipping markets work," the analyst noted. "Global markets should not mistake a ceasefire headline for a supply headline. Physical flows back to 80-90% of pre-disruption levels are a July story," she added.