MOSCOW, September 4. /TASS/. Due to the sharp slowdown of the economy and the strengthening of the ruble, inflation is declining faster than expected, and by the end of the year it may fall somewhat below 6%, head of the Expert RA rating agency Marina Chekurova said in an interview with TASS on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF).
"Because of the sharp slowdown of the economy and the strengthening of the ruble, inflation has been declining faster than anticipated, as has the key rate. Therefore, our current expectations for [the key rate at the end of the year] are rather in the range of 15-15.5%, precisely due to the emerging need to prevent a recession. At the same time, we see inflation at the end of the year at around or slightly below 6%," she said.
According to the head of Expert RA, taking into account the rise in transaction costs and sanctions-related restrictions, the natural level of inflation has most likely increased. "Therefore, one can speak of a possible adjustment of the target upward, but the specific level requires further assessment. The 4% target was established in completely different conditions and, in our view, deserves reconsideration," she said.
According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, inflation at the end of 2025 will be in the range of 6-7%.
The 10th Eastern Economic Forum is taking place in Vladivostok from September 3 to 6 under the theme "The Far East: Cooperation for Peace and Prosperity." The business program will feature more than 100 thematic sessions divided into seven tracks. The forum is expected to bring together over 4,500 participants from more than 70 countries and territories. The Roscongress Foundation is the organizer of the EEF, with TASS as its general information partner.