MOSCOW, November 9. /TASS/. Russia’s oil production may grow from 531 mln tons in 2023 to 540 mln tons five years earlier than planned, in 2030, and remain at that level until 2050, according to a revised energy strategy through 2050 obtained by TASS, which has been submitted to the Russian government.
Initially the draft strategy, which was also seen by TASS, suggested that Russia would reach output of 540 mln tons by 2036, according to the targeted scenario. The draft document also had only two scenarios of development of the country’s fuel and energy sector, a targeted one and an inertial scenario, while the revised variant of the document adds two more scenarios, a stress scenario and ‘technical potential’.
The stress scenario suggests a serious decline in production figures in fuel and energy sectors amid contraction of export possibilities and overall worsening of external conditions, according to the document. In particular, according to the stress scenario, Russia’s oil export may drop to zero by 2050. Meanwhile the ‘technical potential’ scenario includes the highest possible performance levels depending on the current and projected technical level of fuel and energy sectors, infrastructure restrictions, though with economic profitability and reasonability of potential actions not considered.
The targeted scenario suggests that oil export will go up slightly compared with 2023 - from 234 mln tons to 235 mln tons by 2030 and remain at that level by 2050. Oil supplies to the domestic market will increase from 297 mln tons in 2023 to 305 mln tons in the period from 2030 to 2050.
Oil refining may total 283 mln tons in 2030-2050 compared with 275 mln tons in 2023. Export of petroleum products may reach 141 mln tons in 2030-2036 and 146 mln tons by 2050 compared with 132 mln tons in 2023.