BEIJING, May 16. /TASS/. Even as Russia held out a prospect of talks with Ukraine without preliminary conditions, Moscow will insist on sone of its key security-related principles and red lines, according to Sun Qi, executive director of the Centre for Russia and Central Asia Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.
"Although [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is not putting forward preliminary conditions, however, in my opinion, there are basic principles and red lines in the negotiations. At the geostrategic level, the focus of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation has shifted from the balance in Donbass to a systemic game related to a restructuring of the Euro-Asian security architecture. For example, Russia believes the conditions that are not subject to compromise are that NATO should roll back to its status as of 1997 and Ukraine should adopt a status of permanent neutrality. At the same time, the government in Kiev regards the restoration of the 1991 borders as a categorical condition. These fundamental conditions have actually formed invisible barriers in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and also become mutually exclusive strategic aspirations that reduce the space for negotiations to zero," he said in an interview with TASS.
According to the analyst, there are still too many disagreements between the sides on key issues, which does not help to lay a robust groundwork for the talks.
"In the absence of agreement on the main issues, there will be more disputes than constructive dialogue at the negotiating table," he said.
Still, talks are the only path toward peace, according to the analyst.
"Looking back at the history of international conflicts of recent times, military means often lead to escalation rather than a fundamental solution. Any path to peace is built step by step at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield," he said.
According to Sun Qi, the situation is exasperated by the US stance, while the country’s meddling in the Russia-Ukraine talks is a vivid example of the classic model of manipulating geopolitical crises by a hegemonic power.
"From day one, the conflict ceased to be a matter between just two countries. The United States first fueled the fire by feeding the strategic anxiety of Eastern European countries with vague promises of security, and then, by supplying weapons, helped hold the front line, depleting Russia's forces, creating a chain of interests that combines military economy and geopolitical deterrence, which brought the conflict to a state where it’s become unmanageable," the analyst said.