WASHINGTON, March 21. /TASS/. The Biden administration should press the accelerator pedal on negotiations with Russia on Ukraine, a US expert said in an article for Responsible Statecraft on Monday.
According to George Beebe, Director of Grand Strategy at Washington-based Quincy Institute, there are three big factors showing why the United States should do that. They will shape prospects for the conflict in Ukraine, he believes. "Each of these affects the others in potentially reinforcing ways. Together, they could soon create a dynamic that might greatly constrain the ability of the [US President Joe] Biden administration to steer events toward its desired outcomes," Beebe emphasized.
The first, to him, is the course of battlefield developments. Russian troops are getting closer to encircling Artyomovsk (known in Ukraine as Bakhmut), while Ukrainian forces "look to be on the brink of their first significant setback since last summer," Beebe noted. This battle, he said, "is exacting an enormous toll on Ukraine."
The second factor is US domestic policies, Beebe said. For months, American popular opinion on the Russian special military operation "has been growing more polarized, with Republicans increasingly questioning US war aims and the extent of American support for Ukraine," he maintained. "Whereas Biden’s Ukraine policy enjoyed overwhelming bipartisan support over the past year, it is likely to face mounting political opposition going forward," said the expert, who was director of the CIA’s Russia analysis and a staff advisor on Russia matters to Vice President Richard Cheney.
Beebe views China as the third factor that he says is "starting to become active." "Beijing’s bid to play mediator could have appeal for Kiev," he warned. By the summer, the expert underscored, "Ukraine might well have less bargaining leverage as its battlefield position stagnates and its confidence in enduring American support erodes."
"Both Ukraine and Russia could, for different reasons, find China increasingly attractive as a potential mediator, even if neither is yet prepared for significant concessions," Beebe assumes.
In his article, Beebe said it was "not too late for the Biden administration to find a way out of this potential trap by pressing the accelerator pedal on negotiations with Russia." "But it is not too soon to say that the window of opportunity for American diplomacy is in danger of narrowing," the expert concluded.