MOSCOW, November 10. /TASS/. The novel coronavirus case incidence in Russia will reach the plateau within seven days, with decline expected in two or three weeks, Doctor of Medical Sciences, immunologist Vladislav Zhemchugov has told TASS.
"We expect the number of cases, which are now at their peak, to reach the plateau within one week. Anyway, there will be fewer cases and deaths in areas where anti-coronavirus restrictions have been introduced. Subsequently, we will accumulate herd immunity against the delta variant, including among those who had a mild form of the infection. And we will see the light at the end of the tunnel, with cases starting to decline in two or three weeks," he said.
"Further forecasts can be made only when we understand how many people are already immune to the delta variant," the expert continued.
The expert explains the current epidemiological situation in Russia with the fact that a large number of people, who had recovered from the infection during the first waves of the pandemic, have now become vulnerable to the delta variant.
"All vaccines currently in use have been made on the basis of the Wuhan strain, the original variant. However, the delta variant is now prevalent, and it differs from the original one to a great extent, due to mutations. As a result, vaccines have become 30%-40% less effective, but they are still working. With this in mind, and also given that those who vaccinated or recovered from the coronavirus long ago can contract a mild form of the disease again, our epidemiological situation is what it is," he said.
The expert sees several possible scenarios regarding the future of SARS-CoV-2. According to one of them, it will mutate into a form that will be able to infect animals, evolving into a new zoonotic disease and circulating among them. "However, the virus can be transmitted back to humans should the herd immunity weaken. It’s hard to say how often such outbreaks may occur," he said.
"The second variant is total elimination of the virus, as was the case with SARS in 2001 and MERS in 2009. They are gone and cannot be found again," the expert continued. "The third variant envisages that the virus keeps circulating among humans, coming in waves like influenza. It will keep mutating and will become a new seasonal infection."
As of November 9, a total of 250,154,972 novel coronavirus cases and 5,054,267 deaths have been registered worldwide. The number of those infected grew by 370,007 in the past 24 hours, while fatalities increased by 6,183.
To date, 8,873,655 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Russia, with 7,619,596 patients having recovered from the disease. Russia’s latest data indicates 249,215 fatalities nationwide. The Russian government set up an Internet hotline to keep the public updated on the coronavirus situation.