MOSCOW, April 21. /TASS/. Washington's demands risk disrupting a ceasefire with Iran; Switzerland stands ready to host the next round of Ukraine talks; and Kiev uses the Druzhba pipeline issue to blackmail the new Hungarian authorities. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: US demands risk disrupting ceasefire with Iran
Tensions in the Middle East are rising again as Tehran sees the recent seizure of its vessel by US forces as a ceasefire violation. Meanwhile, the ceasefire is about to expire. Experts interviewed by Izvestia point to fundamental disagreements that are hindering efforts to resolve the crisis, which primarily include the United States’ unwillingness to take into account Iran’s interests regarding its nuclear program and regional policy.
The current crisis around US-Iran talks is a systemic one and cannot be settled without addressing key underlying differences, international affairs expert Hadi Issa Dalloul believes.
Iraqi analyst Safaa al-Asam believes that Iran is not prepared to discuss Washington's proposals in the current situation because they suggest Tehran should make major concessions in terms of national security and sovereignty.
The situation in the Middle East is heading towards another round of violence, Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher with the Center for Middle and Near East Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, told Vedomosti. In his opinion, the Iranian leadership is confident that US President Donald Trump’s attempts to impose talks on Tehran are aimed at buying time before launching more strikes.
Another obstacle to the resumption of US-Iran dialogue is that the positions of the parties are significantly different, Sazhin went on to say. Although part of the Iranian elite, consolidated around President Masoud Pezeshkian, is interested in reaching a compromise, hardliners are the ones that have greater clout in the country at this point, the expert noted. "Still, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ position cannot be called undisputed because of the economic crisis the country is going through. However, it’s difficult for moderate forces to seize the initiative in talks with the US due to the external uncertainty," Sazhin emphasized.
Izvestia: Switzerland stands ready to host next round of Ukraine talks
Switzerland's authorities are capable of promptly organizing a new round of talks on resolving the Ukraine crisis, top Swiss diplomat Ignazio Cassis told Izvestia. The last meeting, which involved Russia, Ukraine and the US, took place in Geneva on February 17-18. Before that, the parties held two rounds of consultations in the United Arab Emirates. Experts believe that no meetings on Ukraine should be expected to take place in the near future because the US is currently focused on Iran and Cuba, Kiev is reluctant to fulfill Moscow’s demand that Ukrainian troops be withdrawn from Donbass, and Russia so far sees no reason to hold bilateral meetings with Ukrainian representatives.
Reports emerged after the Swiss-hosted talks that Moscow insisted on a return to the UAE. The main reason is that Russia does not see Switzerland as a neutral player, Ivan Loshkaryov, associate professor with the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, explained.
However, a scenario where the next round of talks takes place in the UAE now also looks unlikely because of the conflict around Iran. This is why authorities in Turkey - another country that earlier hosted consultations on Ukraine - have come to the forefront once again.
"Turkey still looks like the most appropriate venue for resumed Russia-Ukraine talks, given that it’s no longer safe to hold meetings in the Gulf monarchies. Ankara seems to be a reliable mediator to a certain extent because it maintains working relations with both Kiev and Moscow," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics, pointed out.
According to St. Petersburg State University professor Natalya Yeryomina, talks on Ukraine will resume sooner or later because all parties are interested in it. However, not all of them are ready to reach an agreement. In particular, Kiev and Brussels seek to take advantage of the negotiation process in order to get a respite.
The political analyst expects that Washington will start playing a more prominent role because with the November mid-term congressional elections drawing near, Donald Trump needs to secure at least some foreign policy success. Russia does not reject dialogue but Moscow needs specific agreements. In the meantime, Russia keeps working to achieve its goals through military means, in the hope that pressure will sooner or later make Ukraine accept Moscow’s terms.
Izvestia: Kiev uses Druzhba pipeline issue to blackmail new Hungarian authorities
The Ukrainian authorities are obstructing an inspection of the Druzhba oil pipeline to hide the fact that it is not in need of repairs, Slovak Parliament Deputy Speaker Tibor Gaspar told Izvestia. The Hungarian leadership has said that Kiev expressed readiness to resume oil transit in return for Budapest’s approval of the European Union’s 90-billion-euro loan for Ukraine. However, Hungary’s incoming Prime Minister Peter Magyar was outraged by the demand and warned Ukraine against engaging in blackmail. Experts believe that Kiev will use any tools to get funding from the EU.
"Zelensky sees the Druzhba pipeline issue as an instrument to obtain the loan from the EU, so its approval will result in the pipeline returning to full operation. No steps against Hungary are likely to be taken once funds are allocated," Mikhail Vedernikov, leading researcher with the Department of Central and Eastern European Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe, said.
Resuming Russian oil supplies is a priority for the future Hungarian government. However, in Vedernikov’s view, Magyar will hardly begin dialogue with Kiev by making threats and trying to exert pressure because Budapest’s tools for pressuring Kiev are limited, while Ukraine has the upper hand.
Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s incoming Prime Minister Rumen Radev announced after winning the election that he planned to build mutually respectful and equal relations with Russia. Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor with the Russian State University for the Humanities, points out that Bulgarian voters have in fact raised their voice against attempts to put their country at the forefront of anti-Russian policies.
Opinion polls show that over 50% of Bulgarian citizens are ready to accept a solution to the Ukraine conflict on Russia’s terms. This is part of a broader trend as demand for a diplomatic settlement of the crisis is growing in the EU, political scientist Denis Denisov stressed.
RBC: Global economy suffers blows from Iran conflict
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in its April report that tensions in the Middle East could trigger an energy crisis, while global economic growth would slow down to recession levels in 2026 in the worst-case scenario, RBC reports.
Vladimir Yeryomin, senior researcher with the International College of Economics and Finance at the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade, believes that if the current crisis drags on, it will become similar to the 1973 oil crisis, when an OPEC embargo sent oil prices soaring. As for the 2008 crisis, the current situation is different, because risks are not coming from the banking system but from the real sector, through the energy industry, logistics and geopolitics. Unlike the period of the coronavirus pandemic, governments now have fewer opportunities to boost economies because of high inflation rates.
Anna Fedyunina, associate professor with the Department of Applied Economics at the Higher School of Economics, notes that the fragmentation of the world economy is what is making the current situation different. According to her, the crisis is likely to unfold amid sanctions, high debt and inflation, which is reducing countries’ ability to adapt.
That said, Fedyunina points to two main fields hit by the crisis, which are the energy sector and the food industry. "A considerable amount of fertilizers are delivered through the region. Supply disruptions and rising fertilizer prices have in fact created the risk that food security will significantly deteriorate, particularly in Asian and African countries that import fertilizers and food. The prices of agricultural products may rise even higher in the fall," she warned.
As for Russia, the short-term impact of high oil prices could be a positive thing but if the conflict goes on and on, global demand for energy may decline, while logistics disruptions will affect exports, Sofya Glavina, associate professor with the Economic Department of the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, pointed out.
Media: New Bulgarian government unlikely to mimic outgoing Hungarian PM’s policy
As if in compensation for Viktor Orban’s defeat in the recent Hungarian elections, Rumen Radev - a politician many Western media outlets suspect of being sympathetic to the Kremlin - has come to power in Bulgaria. However, experts don’t expect Sofia to change its foreign policy, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
At first glance, Radev is one of the so-called pro-Russian politicians in Europe, along with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungary's Orban. Radev calls for restoring relations with Moscow and opposes weapons supplies to Kiev. Radev’s Euroscepticism is another thing that puts him in alignment with Fico and Orban. However, this is not the reason why Bulgarians voted for Radev: his party won thanks to its anti-corruption agenda.
Nikolay Podchasov, senior researcher with the Center for European Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, notes that Radev is first and foremost a pragmatist. "I would say he is the least anti-Russian of all politicians in Bulgaria. Radev describes himself as a Bulgarian politician who is focused on protecting the country’s national interests. If the interests lie in maintaining a constructive dialogue with Moscow, then it should be done," the analyst explained.
Radev cannot be seen as a pro-Russian politician but compared to ex-Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, he looks more measured in terms of relations with Moscow, Alexander Kamkin, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Vedomosti. Borisov has never made a secret of his pro-Western views and several times torpedoed joint infrastructure projects with Russia.
There should be no illusions about an independent Bulgarian leader, said Nikita Gusev, a researcher with the Institute for Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. As the head of a country that is financially dependent on Brussels and Washington, he has to act within a certain framework. Still, Radev’s election win is a notable development both for Bulgaria and Russia-Bulgaria relations, even though it would be an exaggeration to call it "a Russian victory."
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