MOSCOW, August 11. /TASS/. Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump plan to meet in Alaska; NATO spending threatens to increase divisions within the EU; and Armenia-Azerbaijan peace declaration may change regional security situation. These stories have topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: What to expect from Putin-Trump Alaska meeting
Alaska – once Russian land, part of the US since 1867 - has been chosen as the place for a summit between President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Donald Trump of the United States, Vedomosti writes.
Alaska is an apt venue, given its symbolic historical meaning and practical advantages for both Russia and the US, Pavel Koshkin, senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, said. He pointed out that back when the Russian Empire sold Alaska to the United States, talk of a Russia-US alliance swept Europe. "In addition, the Americans supplied planes to the Soviet Union via Alaska during World War II," Koshkin added. Alaska is also a logistically convenient location as Russia won’t have to ask European countries to open their airspace to get there.
The leaders of Russia and the US will no doubt delve into the root causes of the Ukraine conflict at the meeting, Koshkin points out. Trump seeks to close the issue and move on, Maxim Suchkov, director of the European Studies Institute at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, believes. In his view, the fact that the summit will be taking place in Alaska means the parties will discuss the Arctic, where both confrontation and cooperation between Russia and the US is possible. The expert added that both Moscow and Washington were interested in addressing other topics, too, including the Middle East, Syria, Iran and space exploration.
However, the big fish remains Ukraine, and until that matter is resolved, significant progress on other issues is unlikely, Dmitry Novikov, associate professor with the Department of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, emphasized. The expert says people should temper their expectations for the sitdown, that the summit won’t produce any major breakthroughs on Ukraine. One meeting can do little to untangle the web that is Ukraine, he said. And any potential agreement reached between Russia and the US will only work if Ukraine and Europe are willing to cooperate, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.
Today, European allies feel left out in terms of political decision-making related to crucial issues of European security, political analysts say. Meanwhile, Trump has some leverage over Ukraine and the European Union, both economically and where military supplies are concerned, Diplomatic Academy Vice Principal Oleg Karpovich noted. Still, it is yet unclear whether the US president is ready to use that leverage: the upcoming summit will be a real test of his deal-making ability.
Izvestia: NATO defense budget hikes could spur EU infighting, as poorer nations forced to reach deep to make target
European countries with relatively low per capita income plan to cut social welfare programs, reduce spending on health and education and raise taxes in order to make room for NATO defense costs. These are nations like Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and Croatia. Meanwhile, some EU members - Spain, for one - have refused to raise defense expenditures, something US President Donald Trump has made clear he wants NATO allies to do. This could further increase divisions within the EU amid a growing economic crisis, said experts interviewed by Izvestia.
The idea of bringing military spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 was backed by Germany and France, the engines that drive Europe’s economy and whose people are quite well-off. But such spending hikes are clearly disadvantageous for countries with weaker economies. Still, many poorer EU countries have no choice but to support this initiative so as not to draw ire from the US, Andrey Kortunov, an expert with the Valdai International Discussion Club, explained. "Quarreling with the US could affect other aspects of relations, leading to economic restrictions and political sanctions," the expert said.
Donald Trump’s heavy-handed approach is making it difficult to revolt. Heavyweights such as the EU, China, India and Brazil are facing pressure in the form of import tariffs, and smaller European nations are looking at that with worry. However, there are precedents where EU members have refused to allocate more funds from their budgets to defense. Western media outlets report that Italy, for instance, is looking for ways to opt out of the commitment to raise military expenditures, even though it spent only 1.5% of GDP on defense last year.
It is such cases that could pave the way for a split within the EU, Kortunov points out. "The countries that are unwilling to increase spending will naturally refer to the precedents now being created. So this issue could be a back-and-forth political struggle that stays with us for a while," the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: What peace declaration between Armenia, Azerbaijan means in practice
Moscow welcomes the United States’ mediation efforts to normalize relations between Baku and Yerevan, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, commenting on a joint declaration on peaceful relations signed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Washington with direct participation from US President Donald Trump, Vedomosti writes.
The development of the peace declaration began under the previous Washington administration, but Baku refused to sign it at the final stage, Andrey Areshev, political scientist and Caucasus expert, points out. Even with the peace agreement now agreed in principle, the sides could still face hurdles before it is formally signed, the expert warned. "Yerevan is ready to meet Baku’s demand to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh from the Armenian constitution through a referendum, but the outcome of that vote is unpredictable," Areshev explained.
It is Yerevan that is making concessions, Grant Mikaelyan, a researcher with the Institute of Caucasus Studies, said. Armenia has hurt its strategic position in the region as the country will now depend more on Turkey and Azerbaijan, while Washington has not put any commitments into writing.
The declaration specifically mentions the importance of opening regional transportation links which have been blocked since the early 1990s. There is also a provision establishing a transport corridor dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which is supposed to connect Azerbaijan’s mainland with its Nakhchivan enclave via Armenian territory along the country’s border with Iran.
The United States’ role in such a key segment of the transport network, which will also be part of the Middle Corridor (a trans-Caspian international transport corridor from Europe to China bypassing Russia), has the potential to reshape the entire regional security system in the future, said Rafik Ismailov, an Azerbaijani political scientist and member of the Russia-Azerbaijan expert council.
The document’s implementation essentially means that Armenia is going to lose sovereignty over part of its territory, even though that won’t be formally acknowledged, Mikaelyan noted. In his opinion, the biggest danger in this regard is that Azerbaijan could see the Trump Corridor as an extraterritorial one and insist that there should be no Armenian presence there, otherwise threatening to start another war.
Kommersant: Ethereum up 20% in one week as US policy fuels crypto demand
The price of the Ethereum cryptocurrency has passed the $4,300 mark, rising by over 20% in one week and reaching an all-time high.The rally in crypto markets has been fueled in part by US government measures encouraging investment in digital assets. Ethereum is considered undervalued compared to Bitcoin, which has additionally contributed to demand for the cryptocurrency. However, experts interviewed by Kommersant point to risks that could cool interest in the asset.
The world’s most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has also been rising in price recently, but at a slower pace. Besides, Bitcoin’s share in the crypto market capitalization is declining: it stood at almost 65% in early June, with Ethereum’s share slightly exceeding 6%, but now, the BTC share has dropped below 60%, while the ETH share is up to 13%.
GIS Mining Director General Vasily Girya notes that in July, the US passed the GENIUS Act establishing federal regulations for stablecoins, paving the way for banks and major financial players to fill out their crypto infrastructure.
In addition, as the US Federal Reserve is expected to lower its key rate soon, global markets are showing growing appetite for risks, Tehnobit CEO Alexander Peresichan remarks.
Market participants don’t rule out that Ethereum will reach $4,800 by the end of the month, rising to $5,000 in the fall. Bitcoin’s price may also grow in the near future. However, Girya expects Bitcoin’s share in the total market capitalization to "gradually decrease in favor of Ethereum and other assets."
Meanwhile, experts point to the risks inherent to the market. Peresichan emphasizes that the Donald Trump administration maintains an aggressive rhetoric regarding import tariffs, adding to instability on global markets and pushing investors "to diversify assets and search for alternative tools to hedge risks."
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: As gold hits another all-time high, Russian government poised to cash in
The price of gold has hit another all-time high amid investor concern over the future health of the global economy. Gold prices grew by 2.32% per troy ounce in the past week alone, rising to $3534.10, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports.
The global gold surge is not impacting Russia’s monetary policy much, Mikhail Gordiyenko, professor with the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, observed. According to him, this phenomenon has almost no direct impact on the inflation rate, only slightly affecting domestic prices.
"Ordinary consumers will only notice a rise in prices in the sectors where gold is the final product. That said, negative inflationary pressure only comes from the rising prices of goods made of gold. Today, gold jewelry prices have increased by 25% compared to the same period last year, and demand for them is slowing down," Gordiyenko noted.
"In Russia, the jewelry industry is the main consumer of gold, accounting for 40-50% of the market. The rest is investment gold purchased by the Central Bank and various investors, companies and individuals. This is why the rise in gold prices won’t be an important factor for the majority of economic sectors and won’t have any significant impact on the prices of mass goods," Alexander Abramov, head of a laboratory analyzing institutions and financial markets at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, explained.
Investors stand to benefit from the price increase, as the value of their assets rises. In such a situation, Russia’s Central Bank and Finance Ministry will sell more gold from their reserves, obtaining extra revenues.
According to experts, another positive is that higher gold prices make it possible to increase assessments of Russia’s gold reserves and maintain budget revenues by selling the precious metal.
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