MOSCOW, May 5. /TASS/. Moscow expects de-escalation steps from Kiev ahead of a proposed three-day ceasefire, and experts doubt that the EU can significantly boost its defense spending. Meanwhile, Israel carries out air strikes on Syria to defend a religious minority there. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines in Russia.
Izvestia: Moscow expects Kiev to take a clear path toward de-escalation
Ahead of a three-day ceasefire from May 8 proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in honor of the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War, Moscow expects decisive actions from Kiev toward deescalating the conflict, the Kremlin said. Meanwhile, not only has Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky rejected Putin’s proposal for a ceasefire, he said he cannot guarantee the safety of foreign leaders at Moscow’s parade.
The United States is reviewing its mediating role in the Ukraine conflict, and the White House is irritated with Zelensky’s refusal to accept US recognition of Crimea. US President Donald Trump said on May 4 that the US might "walk away" from peace talks with Russia and Ukraine unless the two sides make progress.
Prospects for direct talks between Moscow and Kiev look dim to American historian and former Harvard University professor Vladimir Brovkin. In an interview with Izvestia, he said signing an international agreement on Ukraine’s neutrality with the participation of the US and the EU and the United Nations acting as a guarantor would be acceptable to Russia.
Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Center for Security Studies, thinks even as attempts to resolve the situation continue in the next 30 to 60 days, they may eventually turn fruitless, with the US withdrawing from the peace talks and Ukraine being forced to demonstrate determination to continue the war as a way of getting more financial support from Europe and maintaining the flow of US assistance.
Meanwhile, on May 1, the United States and Ukraine signed a minerals deal. As part of it, the United States could allocate funding for air defense supplies, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko said.
"On April 30, upon Trump’s first 100 days of presidency, he got what he had sought so eagerly - a rare earths agreement with Kiev. With the bulk of those resources being on Russia-controlled areas, a scenario in which the US agrees to Moscow’s demand for a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the four [Russian] regions looks increasingly less likely," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst with the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia. According to the expert, unless there is a peace agreement soon, Russia may face increased US pressure that can range from more military aid packages to Kiev to additional sanctions or higher tariffs on buyers of Russian oil.
Izvestia: Whether Europe can significantly boost its defense spending
Only six EU member countries, namely Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Portugal, could currently increase their defense budgets to 1.5% of GDP, as proposed by the European Commission (EC), Izvestia has calculated. Another 10 EU countries already spend a higher 3% of GDP on defense and have the capacity to raise their defense expenditure. Meanwhile, as many as 11 members of the bloc have already exceeded the maximum permissible level of budget deficit and carry a high government debt, so they will have to scale back social spending for further modernization, experts say. The EU anticipates that the United States will stop ensuring European security, so the Old World should take independent action, EC President Ursula von der Leyen explained.
The EU militarization plan calls for increased defense funding to purchase air defense systems, missiles, artillery systems, and drones, including for Ukraine, and may become a supplement to NATO. In this light, the EU would serve as an additional administrative structure for defense coordination, should the United States decide to focus on other issues instead. Besides, such a parallel structure may be needed for cooperation with Austria and other non-NATO countries, Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor of international relations at the Russian State University for the Humanities, explained to Izvestia.
The disbursement of funds appears to be a more complicated issue now, and the EU has nothing to showcase here. Even as individual countries have made some progress in integrating their defense sectors, Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher with the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, does not see a broader possibility for any substantial increase in their defense capabilities. "Of course, many [EU] countries maintain defense cooperation with players outside the region (the United States, Turkey, South Korea, and Israel, among other countries), but such projects often spark disagreements inside the EU and do not always align with the common strategy of developing military capabilities," the expert argues.
Further down the road, the EU may eventually pose a threat to Russia’s security, but this path is far from preordained, and attempts can be made to delay the familiar arms race scenario or even prevent it, the political analyst said.
Vedomosti: Israel launches strikes on Syria to defend religious minority
Between the evening of April 30 and May 2, Israel carried out a series of intense air strikes on military targets, including anti-aircraft cannons and missile launchers, in Syria, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported. Simultaneously, Israel deployed its troops on the Syrian border "to prevent the entry of hostile forces into the area of Druze villages."
According to Israel’s public broadcaster KAN, Tel Aviv is preparing a new list of Syrian targets for a potential attack. The military escalation comes amid deadly clashes between Syrian government troops and Druze militias in a Damascus suburb and in southern Syria.
Syria’s news agency SANA said Israel had launched air strikes near the presidential palace in Damascus, as well as in the governorates of Latakia, Hama, and Daraa in southern Syria, while the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said more than 20 strikes on military targets had been conducted in what it called this year’s largest-scale Israeli attack.
Syria’s acting President Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa condemned the Israeli air strikes on Syria and called the attack part of continued hostile acts aimed at destabilizing the nation.
Program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Ivan Bocharov doubts Israel will launch a full-scale offensive in Syria for the sake of the Druze as he believes Israeli action will be limited to air strikes. However, he does not rule out that Israel may expand its buffer zone in southern Syria in order to protect Druze-populated localities and help the religious minority form local governments there.
Murad Sadygzade, president of the Center for Middle East Research, agrees. In his view, Israel may expand its control of the regional water resources by seizing areas in southern Syria. "Water security is a pressing issue for everyone in the Middle East, and I don’t think the current Syrian government can mount any serious resistance to Israel anytime soon," the expert told Vedomosti.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: How Trump-era tariffs and rising OPEC+ production may impact oil markets
The global oil market has not fully recovered from the shockwave caused by US President Donald Trump, when news emerged that eight OPEC+ countries have agreed on an accelerated oil output hike. While oil prices plunged by almost 20% amid Trump’s trade wars against nearly all major economies, the latest decision by OPEC+ threatens to exert additional pressure on crude.
In recent weeks, Brent, the most-watched oil blend in Europe and Russia, dropped from $75 per barrel to below $70, despite a 90-day suspension on tariffs the US has announced for all countries except China. Last weekend, eight OPEC+ member countries opted to raise output in June by 411,000 barrels per day, triple the originally agreed level.
Economically, an output hike is not the most favorable choice for Russia in the current context, albeit not a catastrophic one, Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Whether Russia’s oil and gas revenues decline will depend on whether oil prices remain stable or increase, he explained. "Much will depend on progress in US tariff negotiations with its trade partners. Whether tensions around Iran escalate and reduce Iranian oil exports will matter, too, as the global market would then face a shortage, and oil prices would rise. The Russian government has likely prepared an action plan already," Yushkov suggested.
Other experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta pointed to a trade escalation between the US and China, the worsening conflict with Iran, and OPEC decisions as additional major oil price drivers. Should trade wars continue to rage, global oil prices will remain under pressure throughout this year, with Brent likely hovering below $65 per barrel, Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, argued.
Nikolay Dudchenko, an analyst at Finam, sees a collapse of the OPEC+ deal and a renewed price war between allies — rather than US actions — as a significant risk to the oil market, as prices could crash if that scenario unfolds.
Vedomosti: Russian premium coal exports rise in Q1
In the first quarter of 2025, Russian metallurgical coal exports increased 12% year-on-year to 3.9 million metric tons, according to an Argus report seen by Vedomosti.
According to Rosstat, last year, anthracite accounted for 5% of Russia’s total coal production — 21.8 million tons out of 427 million tons (the agency's data on total coal production differs from that provided by the Energy Ministry). In 2024, Russia exported some 17 million metric tons of anthracite, or about 9% of total coal exports, data from NEFT Research revealed.
Sergey Grishunin, managing director at the National Rating Agency (NRA), pointed out that premium coal exports from Sibanthracite and Coalstar fields are profitable even amid low market prices due to low production costs.
Alexander Kotov, a consulting partner at NEFT Research, told Vedomosti that Russian metallurgical coal is in demand among Chinese steel makers, but that the country’s potential to increase anthracite production is restricted. While Russia sells high-quality metallurgical coal, its prices are currently at their lowest, the expert stated. India and Indonesia are alternative markets for Russian anthracite exports, he added.
Maxim Shaposhnikov, an independent industry expert, expects anthracite prices to fall to between $85 and $90 per metric ton by the second half of 2025, a level close to production costs for most suppliers. However, this year, the share of metallurgical coal exports may rise from the traditional 10% to 15-17% in Russia, Shaposhnikov believes.
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