Media: Putin, Biden to discuss strategic stability and diplomats' work in Geneva
After the Kremlin and the White House officially confirmed the date and venue of the long-awaited summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Joe Biden of the United States, the key issue now is the specific agenda and the possible outcome of the meeting. The Kremlin has cautioned against having great expectations about the event, noting that no documents are going to be signed in Geneva. Meanwhile, sources in Russia's government told Kommersant that although no reset should be anticipated, there are at least two fields in which the parties could make progress, namely strategic stability and the working conditions of diplomats. These agreements won't necessarily be put on paper, and the idea is to develop a common position, which may be outlined verbally.
Sources do not expect that in Geneva, the Russian and US presidents will discuss in detail all the aspects of strategic stability, but they could agree on relaunching a regular bilateral dialogue on the issue and establishing several working groups. Experts from both countries are convinced that this is absolutely necessary. "We can expect that by the time of the summit, the US will have appointed an undersecretary to deal with this issue, and the presidents will task their diplomats to head to one of the European capitals for launching consultations," said Andrey Baklitsky, a senior researcher at MGIMO University and PIR Center expert, in an interview with the newspaper.
Meanwhile, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes that if Biden is not satisfied with the outcome of this summit, nothing prevents the White House from declaring a decision on blacklisting a company operator of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Senior Research Fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute for US and Canadian Studies Vladimir Vasilyev notes that there is no unity in the US administration regarding the advisability of establishing contacts with the Kremlin. "Biden believes that he will benefit from meeting with Putin since he will show that not only Trump can find common ground with troublesome foreign leaders for America. But perhaps, [US Secretary of State Antony] Blinken regards the upcoming talks more skeptically." This makes it probable that various surprises could emerge before and after the Geneva meeting. "There is an impression that now the system of Russian-US relations is overseen in Washington by several 'heads.' This could disrupt the talks, or they could end without any result."
Izvestia: Lukashenko rejects 'hijacking' accusations as EU mulls new sanctions
The Belarusian authorities did not violate international law by grounding a Ryanair flight carrying a terrorist who sought to carry out a bloody coup in the country. Moreover, the bomb alert report had come from Switzerland, President Alexander Lukashenko told the national parliament on Wednesday. The Belarusian leader complained that the West refused to cooperate with Minsk on the incident. Meanwhile, the EU is sticking to the idea of slapping more sanctions against Belarus. That said, former presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya has announced plans to gear up for a new "active phase" of protests. However, experts interviewed by Izvestia note that the potential of such protests in the country is not high. Kirill Koktysh, a senior researcher at MGIMO University, is sure that such robust demonstrations like a year ago should not be anticipated. "In sociological terms, there is almost no demand for a demonstration. Those who wanted to have one have had their say. They have taken to the streets," the political scientist said.
According to Director of the Institute for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology Denis Denisov, the Belarusian system has neutralized the protests. "A coup d'etat has been thwarted in the country. On the other hand, it's naive to believe that the capability of resuming demonstrations and destructive actions of the so-called opposition is fully ruled out," he explained. He notes that Western states, which were behind destabilizing the situation in Minsk, will keep using any pretext for mobilizing those Belarusians, who are ready to further destabilize the political situation in the republic.
The EU has responded to the emergency landing by imposing an air boycott against Belarus and has vowed to introduce new restrictions. In its turn, Belarus has suggested carrying out an international investigation into the incident. According to German political scientist Alexander Rahr, although Minsk made the right move by requesting an international probe, as far as the Europeans are concerned, the key feature in this story is the violation of human rights. If Belarus does not let opposition figure Roman Protasevich walk free, the parties won't manage to hold any direct dialogue, he noted. "It should be understood that the West clearly says that this incident is an act of piracy, and the information provided by Belarus is bogus, including Minsk's theory of Hamas' supposed role in the bomb threat on the plane. An international investigation should be conducted only on condition of providing fair data," the expert told the newspaper.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US pressure strengthens Russian-Chinese partnership
Thanks to the partnership with Russia, China will be able to overcome global issues and challenges easier, Beijing said. Washington's sanctions against China and Russia open up new opportunities for economic cooperation between the two powers, experts believe. The US sanctions policy forces other countries to choose either party to the conflict, the Chinese authorities noted. That said, it's not just the US stick, but also a Chinese carrot that encourages economic rapprochement between Russia and China, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. A key factor in boosting economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is the Chinese economy's stable growth. By 2035, China's GDP is set to double. For Russia, the question is whether it will be able to use the emerging prospects.
"Both for Russia and China, the mounting tensions in relations with the US became a strong impetus for deepening bilateral trade and economic ties," Yana Leksyutina, an expert at the Valdai Club, told the newspaper. "Amid their growing confrontation with Washington, Russia, and China, in particular, intensified energy cooperation. China started opening up its market for Russian producers of agricultural goods and foodstuffs (earlier, the Chinese agricultural market was practically closed to Russian producers). Russia started encouraging Chinese investments in various projects focusing on those that contribute to developing Russia's Far East and the Arctic. These areas are expected to see further positive dynamics."
Russia's exports to China are dominated by raw materials, and there is also a trend towards increasing these exports, namely oil and natural gas. Russia is interested in attracting Chinese investments into its high-tech sector, the expert notes. The overall volume of Chinese investments in Russia since 2011 is estimated at $36 bln, and the biggest share of these funds was poured into raw materials and energy enterprises, 15% into agriculture, and just 1.5% into innovation projects, said Oleg Remyga, who heads the Chinese sector at the Moscow School of Management Skolkovo. Trade turnover between the two countries is gradually restoring, reaching $40 bln in the first four months of 2021. "While China has conflicts with the US, Russia's economy gets additional chances for development, and the question is only how it will use these chances," founder of Sinoruss company Surana Radnayeva told the newspaper.
Izvestia: UK emerges as Russia's key opponent
London considers Russia to be its "number one threat," the UK's defense chief stated ahead of the G7 summit in the United Kingdom scheduled for June. The UK has been trying to unite its allies to confront Moscow for a long time. Britain itself is seeking to become Russia’s key opponent, Izvestia writes.
The UK is using Russia as a tool, a pretext, and a resource for influencing its domestic political situation, channeling financial flows, and strengthening the country's positions in the world in general, Doctor of Political Science and Professor at Saint Petersburg State University Natalya Eremina said. "The game against Russia is very convenient, it is not followed by any punishment from Moscow. By hurling accusations at Russia, it can pump funds into modernizing its military and political tools," the expert said. According to Eremina, the anti-Russian position helps London maintain its status as Washington’s closest ally. "For Britain, given Brexit this is especially important. It positions itself as a powerful state, which takes tougher and more consistent anti-Russian positions than Germany and France and is forming a flank of combating Moscow." The UK was the first to speak about the information war and forming an anti-Russian cybersecurity center. "EU members look at the British experience and cooperate with it on this issue. This allows London to play this card and upgrade its status, up the ante and secure funding in this direction," the expert noted.
According to Director-General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrei Kortunov, London's anti-Russian policy was a reaction to the Biden administration’s position. Like during the Trump presidency, the US considers China, not Russia, as its key threat. Meanwhile, Moscow has no clear sanction plans against Britain. "If the British authorities come up with something more than just rhetoric, then Moscow’s steps could follow suit. Perhaps, this will be asymmetric responses against British media, NGOs, and foundations. They could be listed as undesirable organizations, and the UK itself could be put on the list of unfriendly states. But now there are no grounds for this," he said.
Kommersant: Russia mulls World Bank’s idea of adopting Guaranteed Minimum Income
Russia's economy could dip back into a recession in 2022 if outbreaks of the COVID-19 pandemic step up and new Western sanctions are imposed. In such a downbeat scenario, the World Bank believes that an effective tool for halving poverty in Russia could be introducing a Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI). The idea is to increase poor families' income threshold, pulling them out of poverty, and this program would cost around 0.33% of GDP, less than Russia is spending now. However, Kommersant writes that the full-fledged implementation of GMI is unlikely in Russia due to the political risks of reforming the system of social support.
In its new report, the World Bank upgraded its outlook on Russia's GDP growth in 2021 to 3.2% from 2.9%. However, it notes that even at 3.2% growth, this won't be enough to halve poverty by 2030 without changing the social support system. Russia currently spends $30 bln (or 3% of GDP) - three times more than the gap between the poverty line and average incomes of poor families (without taking into account social benefits). The World Bank notes that "many countries achieve the same result in reducing poverty by spending half or a third less." Unlike other countries, the social net system in Russia does not make eradicating poverty a priority (it concerned just 10% of poor families in 2018) and focuses on backing certain categories of citizens. According to the World Bank, "by giving cash to low-income families with a high propensity to consume, domestic consumption grows, generating large multiplier effects."
Meanwhile, the Russian government will hardly give up this category principle even when introducing new measures. For example, the Labor Ministry's project on paying benefits to families with children depending on their income had to be softened mainly due to the reaction of the public. However, the World Bank's approach is gradually being implemented in Russia thanks to conjugating data on citizens’ incomes and the support measures they receive.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews