MOSCOW, March 13. /TASS/. World oil supply in February 2025 rose by 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 103.3 mln bpd due to OPEC+ countries, partially recovering from the January drop due to cold weather in the United States, according to the March report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
OPEC+ oil production increased by 220,000 bpd due to the fact that Kazakhstan reached a record high output at the Tengiz field, while Iran and Venezuela increased supplies in anticipation of tightening sanctions, the agency noted. Overall, the IEA expects global oil supply to grow by 1.5 mln bpd in 2025 to 104.5 mln bpd, mostly from non-OPEC+ countries, if OPEC+ countries maintain voluntary production cuts.
Non-OPEC+ countries will provide an increase in oil supply by 1.5 mln bpd in 2025, while OPEC+ countries will provide an increase of 30,000 bpd. The IEA emphasized that if additional voluntary OPEC+ cuts are completely cancelled, an additional 400,000 bpd could be added to the 2025 supply forecast.
Thus, taking into account the forecast for oil demand in 2025 at 103.9 mln bpd, the surplus in the global oil market this year could amount to 600,000 bpd, the IEA expects.
At the same time, OPEC+ countries participating in the agreement to reduce oil output increased production in February 2025 month-on-month by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) and exceeded the plan taking into account voluntary restrictions and compensations by 890,000 bpd.
According to the IEA, the target production level of OPEC+ countries under the deal, taking into account voluntary reductions and compensations from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia, reached 33.86 mln bpd, while real production was 34.75 mln bpd. Thus, the plan was exceeded by around 890,000 bpd.