MOSCOW, January 22. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he plans to increase import duties to the country may redirect export flows to other markets, including the Russian one, and lead to a new round of trade wars, experts interviewed by TASS said.
"The rise in import duties in the US may prompt exporters to re-orient the flow of goods to other markets, including the Russian one. In such a case, the volume of goods supply in Russia will increase, which will have an impact on domestic prices, pushing them down," Associate Professor from the Plekhanov Russian Economic University Anastasia Prikladova said.
Assuming the extension of US foreign trade restrictions to other Asian nations, deliveries of goods from India (smartphones, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals) and Vietnam (footwear and apparel, electronics and domestic appliances) may potentially grow.
"Greater imports from India would be particularly useful, as this would contribute to solving the problem related to extraordinary high positive trade balance between our countries. However, remaining hurdles in international payments will complicate establishing new foreign trade ties," she added.
The new US trade policy may affect Russian exports, Senior Lecturer from the Plekhanov Russian Economic University Oleg Ivanov noted. The phosphate fertilizer market may be particularly vulnerable. The US has imported over $1.35 bln worth of Russian fertilizers in recent years. However, decreased competitiveness due to tariffs may reduce export volumes.
"The introduction of duties may provoke retaliatory measures from countries affected by this policy. This may lead to a new round of trade wars that will affect not only Russia but other large economies, such as China and European Union member-countries," Ivanov said. "US reforms are thus aimed at safeguarding its own interests, but their implementation will create significant challenges for international commerce," he added.