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Sales of new cars in Russia to exceed 700,000 in 1H — research

Experts noted citing figures provided by the Association of European Businesses that around 149,000 new passenger and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in March 2024

MOSCOW, April 5. /TASS/. Sales of new cars in Russia may exceed 700,000 in the first half of 2024 if current growth rates for the automobile industry persist and all other things stay equal, according to research by Otkritie Bank (part of VTB Group).

"In the positive concurrence of circumstances and with the lack of new shocks for business sales of new cars may exceed 700,000 units in the first half of the year," the research said.

Experts noted citing figures provided by the Association of European Businesses (AEB) that around 149,000 new passenger and light commercial vehicles were sold in Russia in March 2024. This was 45% higher than in February. Whereas Q1 sales in those segments soared by 86% in annual terms to 332,900 cars. These numbers were the result of domestic dealers selling cars at a discount along with lower prices for a number of Chinese brands, as well as buyers being wary of an increase in prices after a new mechanism of calculation of payment for cars delivered from EAEU countries was introduced starting April 1.

The market could continue growing in April, though at "more moderate rates" compared with the spike seen in March 2024, experts said.

"Sales expectations for brands officially on the Russian market this year are around 2 mln cars. However, the real volume of business of new cars this year will most probably fall around 1.4-1.5 mln units. It appears that as early as in the second half of this year the surplus of cars in our inventory will be around 500-600k units. This commodity and money mass will inevitably put pressure on dealers, which will most likely continue selling cars at a smaller margin and, in some places, close up shop altogether. Purchasers will continue to see cars at reduced prices and have a chance to get a good deal now," experts stated.

That said, increased sales of premium European and Japanese brands registered in Q1 may come down to earth in the coming three months.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said earlier that the ministry projected total auto sales in the country at 1.3 mln units in 2024.

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