MOSCOW, August 31. /TASS/. The effects of key rate changes become fully apparent after 3-6 quarters, according to the Russian Central Bank’s Draft Monetary Policy Guidelines.
Moreover, the regulator will change the effective date of the new key rate from Monday to Wednesday.
TASS has compiled the key points of the document.
Budget policy
Budget policy is an "important factor" that will influence the economy under any scenario in the future.
To offset the impact of expanded demand from the state amid the economy’s limited physical resources and ensure the decline of inflation to the target, more restrained dynamics in other components of domestic demand are required: "This implies less room for monetary policy easing."
"The Bank of Russia has adopted the view that the fiscal impulse in the coming years will be stronger than previously anticipated."
Russia’s monetary policy will be aimed at maintaining price stability regardless of the domestic and global economic development scenario: "Under any scenario for the Russian and global economies, monetary policy will be aimed at achieving its primary goal of maintaining price stability."
By ensuring consistently low inflation, the Bank of Russia "contributes to macroeconomic stability and thereby creates necessary conditions for economic development, including balanced and sustainable economic growth."
Increase in amount of cash in circulation
The growth of cash in circulation in the first half of 2026 exceeded the levels seen in the same periods in 2024 and 2025, which is due to "lower deposit rates, a desire among citizens to keep cash on hand in case of disruptions to cashless payment systems, and other reasons."
The increase in the amount of cash is a natural process accompanying economic growth: "The increase in the amount of cash is a natural process. When the economy grows, the money supply expands, as does the amount of cash. The slight rise in the share of cash this year does not contradict the long-term downward trend."
Key rate
The Bank of Russia will change the effective date of a new key rate following the regulator’s meetings from Monday to Wednesday: "The procedure for applying rates on Bank of Russia's operations will also change: the Bank of Russia Board of Directors meetings on the key rate will continue to be held on Fridays, whereas the new key rate, if changed, will take effect not on Monday, as is currently the case, but on the following Wednesday."
The effects of key rate changes become fully apparent after 3-6 quarters: "Key rate changes fully affect the demand and prices with a time lag. According to the Bank of Russia’s estimates, the effects of key rate changes become fully apparent after 3-6 quarters."
"The Bank of Russia can ensure the return of inflation to the target should it deviate over a horizon of 1-1.5 years in the absence of new significant shocks."
Inflation
The Bank of Russia aims to keep inflation close to the 4% target: "The target of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia is an annual inflation rate of close to 4%. The target is effective on a permanent basis."
The regulator will assess the reasonability of lowering the target in the future: "As part of its Monetary Policy Review to be completed in 2028, the Bank of Russia will analyze when the economy will be able to form the prerequisites for reducing the inflation target and to what level."
Should a decision to lower the target be made, it will be announced a few years before the change, which will allow the economy and inflation expectations to prepare for it in advance.
Baseline scenario
The Bank of Russia projects the key rate at 14.5-14.6% in 2026, and 10.5-12.5% in 2027 under its baseline scenario.
The key rate is projected at 8-9% in 2028, and at 7.5-8.5% in 2029.
The Central Bank expects inflation at 6-7% in 2026, and at 4% from 2027 to 2029 under this scenario.
GDP growth is projected at 0-1% in 2026, and 1.5-2.5% in 2027-2029.
Disinflationary scenario
The Bank of Russia projects the key rate at 14.5-14.6% in 2026, and at 9-11% in 2027 under its disinflationary scenario.
The key rate is projected at 7-8% in 2028, and at 7.5-8.5% in 2029.
The Central Bank also expects inflation at 6-7% in 2026, 3-4% in 2027, and at 4% from 2028 to 2029 under this scenario.
GDP growth is projected at 0-1% in 2026, 2.5-3.5% in 2027, 2-3% in 2028, and 1.5-2.5% in 2029.
Proinflationary scenario
The Bank of Russia projects the key rate at 14.5-14.6% in 2026, and at 13-15% in 2027 under its proinflationary scenario.
The key rate is projected at 11-12% in 2028, and at 8.5-9.5% in 2029.
The Central Bank also expects inflation at 6-7% in 2026, 4.5-5.5% in 2027, and at 4% in 2028-2029 under this scenario.
GDP growth is projected at 0-1% in 2026, 1-2% in 2027, 0.5-1.5% in 2028, and 1.5-2.5% in 2029.
Risk scenario
The Bank of Russia projects the key rate at 14.5-14.6% in 2026, and at 19-21% in 2027 under its risk scenario.
The key rate is projected at 14-16% in 2028, and at 9.5-10.5% in 2029.
The Central Bank also expects inflation at 6-7% in 2026, 11-13% in 2027, 14-16% in 2028, and 9.5-10.5% in 2029 under this scenario.
GDP growth is projected at 0-1% in 2026, and 2-3% in 2029, while GDP contraction is expected at 3-4% in 2027, and 1.5-2.5% in 2028.