MOSCOW, November 11. /TASS/. Ukraine has lost 39 to 41 gigawatts (GW) out of its 56 GW power generation capacity (that is, some 70%) since February 2022, and the remaining 15-17 GW is insufficient to meet the winter needs of the population and industries, according to TASS estimates based on data from the Kiev government.
The capacity that is required to meet the needs of individual and industrial consumers stands at 16-18 GW, reaching peak levels of 18 GW in the winter months. Ukraine can expect to export 2 GW to 2.5 GW of power from the European Union, but a further increase will be limited by the capabilities of the country’s energy grid.
Assessments of available capacities don’t take into account the damage done to power plants in the fall of 2025. Meanwhile, just one series of explosions that took place overnight from November 7 to 8 ended in the suspension of electricity generation at the Tripolskaya and Zmiyovskaya thermal power plants and the loss of at least one GW of generation capacity.
Key generation capacities
The bulk of Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity is made up of three nuclear power plants, the South Ukraine NPP (3 GW), the Rovno NPP (2.88 GW), and the Khmelnitsky NPP (2 GW), which produce a total of 7.88 GW. At some points, nuclear power generation accounts for half of Ukraine’s power generation capacities, even though the country’s authorities seek to restore and increase thermal power generation.
Ukraine does not disclose information about efforts to restore generation capacities and in many cases does not report the damage done to them (in particular, several reports of explosions and the suspension of power generation at the Burshtyn, Tripolskaya and Zmiyovskaya thermal power plants came in 2023-2025). That said, it’s difficult to assess the operating capacities in the sector. According to some estimates from the Ukrainian government, about 80% of the 28 GW generation capacity that existed before 2022 has been lost, as well as about 40% of the 4.8 GW capacity in the hydropower sector.
The losses are partially offset by the generation of renewable energy (with no capacity estimates available) and the distribution of energy produced by gas-powered generators and gas-turbine sets. However, the latter is minimal, as it produced less than 100 megawatts in 2024, compared to the planned volume of one GW.
As a result, given the current condition of the country’s power grid and EU exports, Kiev will face issues in bringing power generation to the required level of 18 GW. Moreover, Ukraine will be left completely unable to adjust capacities in order to secure reserves and carry out repairs if necessary.