MOSCOW, April 24. /TASS/. The Indian government has pledged to punish those responsible for the recent terrorist attack in Kashmir. However, according to Maria Savishcheva, a researcher with the South Asia and Indian Ocean Group at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) under the Russian Academy of Sciences, a large-scale conflict with Pakistan remains unlikely.
"This isn’t the first time we’ve seen escalations in India-Pakistan relations," Savishcheva explained to TASS. "Historically, the most significant conflicts concluded in the twentieth century. Based on past incidents in 2016 and 2019 - when terrorist attacks heightened tensions again - it appears that the Indian government is likely to respond with targeted, localized actions rather than broader military escalation. It’s improbable that this situation will develop into a large-scale or even medium-scale conflict, let alone result in a nuclear confrontation between the two nations."
Savishcheva also forecast a deterioration in bilateral relations in the short to medium term. She highlighted that agreements sustaining cooperation despite ongoing tensions are now being rescinded, notably the suspension of the 1960 water-sharing treaty between India and Pakistan.
"India has expressed dissatisfaction with the operation of the water-sharing agreement, especially amid heightened tensions on the India-China border," Savishcheva noted. "The recent terrorist attack has further fueled the desire to revise such arrangements."
The expert observed that Pakistan has responded with measures akin to India’s actions - such as suspending airspace for Indian flights and contemplating withdrawal from existing agreements. "Pakistan has also reduced its diplomatic presence in India, expelling some embassy staff, particularly military and naval attaches, and suspending visas under certain categories," she explained. "These steps mirror India’s own retaliatory measures."
Details of the terrorist attack
On April 22, gunmen opened fire in Pahalgam, a popular tourist town in Jammu and Kashmir, killing 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali, while injuring many others. The attackers managed to escape. Indian intelligence sources cited by The Times of India indicated that militants affiliated with the Resistance Front - an armed wing linked to the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Taiba (banned in Russia) were responsible.
In response, India declared Pakistani defense, naval, and air force advisors personae non gratae on April 23, closed the key Atari-Wagah border crossing, and suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. Additionally, New Delhi restricted entry for Pakistani nationals traveling on special documents under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) visa exemption system.
Historical context
Kashmir has been a longstanding point of conflict between India and Pakistan since their independence and subsequent partition in 1947. The region lacks a formal border and is divided by the Line of Control. While groups advocating for independence operate within Indian-administered Kashmir, India accuses Pakistan of supporting insurgent activities - a charge Islamabad denies.