World leaders are not giving up on their efforts to bring the Ukrainian conflict to the negotiating table. On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will speak by phone with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. Until recently, the Turkish leader maintained his confidence about the chances for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but this time he stated that the developments are deteriorating. Meanwhile, at the end of the week, Putin undertook a series of phone calls with Western leaders, emphasizing the dangers of "flooding Ukraine" with arms. President Zelensky, on the other hand, believes that Western arms supplies will be able to influence the situation, which is now not in Ukraine’s favor, Kommersant writes.
Moscow has repeatedly stated that it is Kiev that refuses dialogue and with the West’s blessing. In a recent phone call with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, Putin stated that Kiev hindered the negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegates. In response Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, hit back calling this a "lie from Moscow."
Nevertheless, global leaders have not given up on bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table. In addition to Erdogan, this topic was raised in a conversation with Putin over the weekend by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, where Putin once again raised the issue of the dangers of "flooding Ukraine with weapons".
However, these statements, most likely, were ignored, Kommersant writes. The West will not back down on delivering armaments to Kiev, albeit Berlin, for example, is extremely careful in this regard. The group coordinating military aid to Kiev will conduct its third meeting on the sidelines of the NATO defense ministers' conference on June 15 in Brussels. Ukraine's Minister of Defense Aleksey Reznikov plans to attend. Kiev has high hopes for this meeting.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Moscow to offer West grain in exchange for lifting sanctions
The Western population has been stung hard by the ongoing sanctions. Not all European and American leaders will be able to persuade their constituents of the effectiveness of the anti-Moscow restrictions in the midst of energy and food shortages. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, several Western leaders are already softening their sanctions stance. Russia retains some power, which may result in an easing of Western sanctions. The record rise in energy prices, combined with a drop in food availability, lowers the standard of living for Europeans who’ve grown accustomed to comfortable living standards. However, the effect of anti-Russian sanctions will accumulate over time, and Russian influence may wane, the newspaper claims.
The European Commission voted on Sunday to use the Hungarian version of the oil embargo in the troubled sixth package of anti-Russian sanctions. Shipments along the Druzhba oil pipeline will continue, but maritime deliveries would be barred. Experts also notice additional signals that may indicate that the collective West is not only forced to backpedal on its sanction pressure, but also begins to consider the essence of Russia's position in the conflict, perhaps laying the groundwork for increased food and fertilizer supplies from Ukraine and Russia.
Alexey Portansky, Professor of World Economy and International Affairs Department at Higher School of Economics, told the newspaper, "The public's dissatisfaction forces governments to seek solutions and concessions. Following the recent discussions between the leaders of Russia, Germany, and France, the search for peaceful solutions, including easing the food crisis, may restart, subject to lifting anti-Russian sanctions."
Moscow seized the opportunity to try to raise the issue of lifting restrictions, the expert continued. "Russia is going all in. Even in the medium term, its leverage appears to be fairly weak. The government generates 40% of its budget through hydrocarbon exports, and it's difficult to fathom willfully foregoing these revenues," Portansky added.
"The politicians in the EU and the US have been pushing for a conflict on the territory of Ukraine for many years. And now they are busy redistributing the market for energy resources, fertilizers and food. They most likely will not retreat," Executive Director of the capital market department at Univer Capital Artem Tuzov told the newspaper. "Only by recognizing the internal crises, will the West be able to recover and think about the economy," the expert added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: NATO rushes to display solidarity with Finland, Sweden
A NATO flotilla of two American warships, one German, and one French warship arrived in Helsinki as part of joint exercises. The visit was demonstrative - after all, the topic of Sweden and Finland joining NATO is currently topping headlines Meanwhile, it is unclear how the Russian authorities feel about their northwestern neighbor joining the US-led military bloc, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
The Finnish Ministry of Defense announced that the country is increasing the number of international exercises. Indeed, Finland and Sweden's prospective NATO allies are demonstrating in every manner that they will not abandon them if something goes wrong with their eastern neighbor. In early May, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated that the US could offer the two countries required security guarantees prior to their acceptance into the North Atlantic alliance.
How long this transitional period will last is not yet clear, the newspaper writes. On the one hand, plans to admit Finland and Sweden to the US-led bloc at the NATO summit in Madrid on June 28-30 remain in place. On the other hand, no deal has been reached with Turkey. The government vows to block Sweden and Finland's admission because the two countries do not fulfill Ankara's requirements.
Meanwhile, Junior Research Fellow at the Department of European Political Studies at IMEMO Nikita Belukhin says now there is opposition in Finnish society related to the country's entry into NATO. "One of the arguments of the protesters is precisely that as a result of joining the alliance, relations with Russia will worsen," he told the newspaper.
Kommersant: Serbia bargains for Russian gas deliveries
Belgrade and Moscow reached an agreement on new Russian gas deliveries. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic described the situation as extremely favorable for Belgrade, promising that the price of gas in Serbia will now be three times lower than in Europe, and even 90% lower in winter. Nonetheless, Belgrade maintains the possibility of imposing sanctions on Russia, as presets for by the EU and the US, Kommersant writes.
It is not surprising that Belgrade is primarily concerned with the topic of gas, the newspaper writes. The agreement reached six months ago with Moscow on gas supplies along preferential terms for Belgrade - $270 per 1,000 cubic meters expires on May 31, while the price in Europe increased several times during this period.
A Kommersant source close to the Serbian leadership said that the price is $340-350 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas "and completely meets the interests of Belgrade" and that they were "preparing to hear a higher price."
After Moscow largely acquiesced to Belgrade's gas requests, it expects Serbia to respond, Kommersant writes. The Kremlin's message following a telephone conversation between the two presidents speaks of "confirming the shared readiness to continually deepen strategic cooperation between Russia and Serbia."
However, neither Balkan officials nor Balkan experts believe Serbia's position will remain unchanged. Just a day before the phone call between the two presidents, Serbian Energy Minister Zorana Mihajlovic underlined Belgrade's current priorities, noting that EU membership remains the country's key policy.
The position of Belgrade on sanctions against Russia may become clear soon. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is set to visit Serbia on June 7, according to the well-informed Belgrade newspaper Blic.
Vedomosti: Russia to pay state debt to foreigner bondholders using ‘gas-for-rubles’ type mechanism
Moscow will pay holders of Russian Eurobonds using a mechanism similar to the payment method for Russian gas in rubles, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told Vedomosti. According to him, the system will function in the same manner, but "in reverse." Investors will need to open foreign currency and ruble accounts in a Russian bank in order to receive payment for the public debt in its original currency.
"Payment for gas in rubles works as follows: we receive foreign currency, exchange it for rubles on behalf of [gas buyers], and the settlement is completed. The Eurobond settlement process will function similarly, but in reverse," Siluanov told the newspaper.
According to the minister, this mechanism will allow payments to be made without going through the entire Western settlement infrastructure. According to Siluanov, it will allow for direct connection with overseas holders of the country's securities within the country. Payments will only be made through Russia's settlement infrastructure, the National Settlement Depository (NSD, a subsidiary of the Moscow Exchange).
In legal terms, receiving payments this way is unlikely to be a direct violation of sanctions for bondholders, according to Managing Partner at Nordic Star law firm Andrey Gusev. However, the United States can simply declare this way of acquiring a coupon as a type of restriction violation.
In any case, there are no grounds to declare Russia's default on its obligations, he argues, because the debtor is making every effort to meet its obligations to creditors.
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