Moscow and Kiev have chances of reaching compromises in talks, said experts interviewed by Izvestia. However, much will depend on the Ukrainian authorities’ ability to develop a common position. Political scientists have already taken note of some progress on the diplomatic track, but it’s too early to talk about positive outcomes.
Video talks with Russia’s delegation are going on non-stop, said Advisor to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s Office Mikhail Podolyak. At the same time, member of the Russian delegation and head of the State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs Leonid Slutsky specified that dialogue between Moscow and Kiev continued on the so-called Belovezhskaya Pushcha platform.
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee Andrei Klimov believes that Russia and Ukraine could reach an agreement if Kiev was capable of making independent decisions. "I can’t help feeling that some other forces, particularly those from Washington and the United Kingdom, are also involved in the conversation," he said.
According to Center for Political Analysis and Social Research Director Pavel Danilin, some positive messages have been voiced during the negotiations. Still, the fact that the statements by some of Kiev’s representatives sometimes run counter to what their own colleagues say complicates the situation.
The negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine is proceeding in a more intensive manner than it did in early March, Director General of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Dmitry Orlov pointed out. "The parties need to determine a common framework and a starting point for the talks in order to make sure that they produce results," he noted. According to the expert, the framework may include guarantees of Ukraine’s natural status for 20-25 years based on constitutional changes, the dissolution and disarmament of paramilitary groups such as the Azov Battalion and Ukraine’s consent to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics as independent states.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Iran attempts to divert global focus from Russia’s special operation
The Biden administration has been urged to abandon nuclear talks with Tehran after US facilities in northern Iraq came under missile fire in the early hours of March 13. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility, saying that Israeli intelligence positions had been targeted. The series of attacks came as a surprise for those who expected the talks on the Iran nuclear deal to resume, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Opinions started circulating on social media that in this way, Tehran sought to join in on Russia’s actions in Ukraine. However, experts are skeptical about this theory.
Russian International Affairs Council expert Anton Mardasov has doubts that Russian intelligence agencies could have held consultations with their Iranian and Chinese colleagues, asking them to rise up against the Americans. However, Tehran views the Ukrainian developments as part of a common struggle against the West, so it seeks to demonstrate its ability to exert pressure, the expert noted.
"Developments in Ukraine are some kind of a trigger that makes it possible for countries involved in the fight against the West to show their contribution to the battle against its ‘hegemony.’ As for the United States, where inflation rates had started to skyrocket even before all this happened, a new round of oil price hikes in the wake of the Iranian events is a very negative scenario," Mardasov emphasized.
"Perhaps, Russia could somehow benefit from a resurgence of Iran’s confrontation with the US and Israel because it diverts attention from the Ukrainian developments," the analyst said. "It is sort of a favorable scenario because it to some extent makes countries address other frozen conflicts," Mardasov stressed. However, according to him, the incident may disrupt the Vienna talks.
Izvestia: Architecture of international relations to crumble without Russia, senior diplomat cautions
Russia will seek arbitral proceedings over the United States’ misuse of its position as the UN host in terms of visa issuance to Russian diplomats, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin said in an interview with Izvestia.
He slammed the recent US move to declare 12 diplomats from the Russian mission to the United Nations personae non grata as a blatant violation of the obligations that the United States has as a country hosting central UN bodies. "We have repeatedly delivered demarches to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and we will continue to work with him because the issue needs to be resolved," the senior diplomat added.
When asked if it was possible to exclude Russia from the UN Security Council, Vershinin noted that such initiatives were "completely unrealistic." "There are some procedural issues, since it takes two-thirds of UN member states to vote and ratify changes to the essential provisions that regulate the UN Security Council’s activities and membership. All five permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia, must be among those member states. Clearly, such a decision won’t pass," he explained.
"There is also another crucial thing. Without Russia, the entire architecture of international relations would crumble because Russia’s independent and balanced policy is what helps find solutions and prevent extreme decisions during discussions in the Security Council. And let’s be clear: as for the UN Security Council’s members, important African, Asian and Latin American countries are underrepresented there, while Western countries are overrepresented. That said, given their number, they are capable of pushing solutions that, in our view, aren’t in line with the global community’s goals and interests. This is why the veto power is very important for finding balanced and compromise solutions that are consistent with the need to resolve issues in the interests of the international community," the Russian deputy foreign minister emphasized.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Taiwan to resist potential assault by China according to Ukraine’s scenario
The United States has recommended that Taiwan take note of Ukraine’s experience and use US-made weapons and guerrilla tactics in case Chinese paratroopers land on the island. Meanwhile, former officers of the Chinese People's Liberation Army say that in the event of an operation to unite the island with mainland China, the army’s main goal will be to minimize its own casualties and damage to civilians, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Senior Researcher at the Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin believes that "the experience of the military operation in Ukraine will be studied in depth throughout the world." "However, it is unclear what conclusions the Chinese will draw. The Chinese thoroughly study the military experience of other countries in a bid to offset the fact that they haven’t conducted military activities for 30 years. I think that it will be crucial for them to obtain information about ways to suppress air defenses and the impact that Russian air and missile strikes have had on Ukrainian airfields because this is what they will have to do if a conflict around Taiwan breaks out," the analyst noted.
As for guerilla tactics, China has more experience in the field than Ukraine and probably the entire world. For decades, providing weapons to the population has been an important part of the people’s war doctrine developed by Mao Zedong. "China has a relevant doctrine and an organizational structure, and a militia made up of eight million people. They lead a normal civilian life and take part in military training once a year. These people are called up for dealing with the aftermath of natural disasters and maintaining public order," the expert explained.
The Taiwanese people aren't actually betting on a guerilla war, because if the Chinese army lands on Taiwan, seizes ports and continues to send more troops, it will gradually mop up the island. Particularly because the People's Armed Police may be sent to support regular troops. The People's Armed Police is 600,000 strong, while the Chinese army is 2 mln strong, Kashin said.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Europe may urgently need to launch Nord Stream 2
The issue of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline may return to the European forefront, if Russian gas transit via Ukraine stops. Until recently, such a development seemed impossible because there is a valid contract between the two countries until the end of 2024, but now, a simple failure may disrupt gas transit, Rossiyskaya Gazeta notes.
It appears to be impossible to offset the possible disruption of gas transit through Ukraine without launching Nord Stream 2, Deputy Director General of Russia’s National Energy Security Fund Alexei Grivach said. If Ukrainian transit stops and Europe’s demand for gas remains at last year’s level, then Russian gas shortages will amount to 25-30 bln cubic meters. However, Europe will most likely need more gas in 2022 because it will have to fill its underground storage facilities that were practically depleted during the winter. Fulfilling this objective may require about 60 bln cubic meters of gas.
Still, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman believes that Nord Stream 2 is unlikely to be launched even in an emergency situation because the gas pipeline hasn’t been certified. According to the expert, the project can hardly be expected to be resumed following all the statements echoed by EU officials.
However, the political and economic situation in the world is rapidly changing. Just 18 months ago, no one could have imagined that oil, gas and coal prices would hit record highs. And here is where the question arises of how long the Nord Stream 2 pipeline can lie on the floor of the Baltic Sea without operation.
The pipes are new and their expected lifetime is 50 years, Grivach specified. However, they require regular maintenance. It is unclear if the project’s operator will be able to continue its activities to maintain the pipeline under sanctions. But all in all, the situation remains under control on both the Russian and German sides, the expert stressed.
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