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Strait of Hormuz developments

US Energy Department estimates oil output decline in Middle East in April at 10.5 mln bpd

The report assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed until late May, with shipping traffic beginning to pick up in June

MOSCOW, May 12. /TASS/. The US Department of Energy estimates the combined decline in oil production in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain in April at 10.5 million bpd and does not expect a full recovery by the end of the year. This follows from a report by the US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA).

"We assess that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 10.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production in April. This report assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed until late May, with shipping traffic beginning to pick up in June.

Oil shipments through the strait, however, will not likely reach pre-conflict levels until later this year, and we expect some oil production in the Middle East to remain disrupted over that period," the report says.

The US Department of Energy expects the decline in Middle East oil production to peak in May at 10.8 million bpd due to storage capacity reaching capacity. One factor driving the US Department of Energy's increased expectations for oil production declines is Iran's forecast that it will have to partially reduce production due to the US blockade, which has limited its ability to export oil.

According to the agency's estimates, most of the halted oil production will be restored by January 2027, oil reserves will begin to grow again, and this will help prices fall to approximately $79 per barrel in 2027.

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