MOSCOW, May 29. /TASS/. The dollar exchange rate on the Russian interbank market fell today to the lows of May 2023. According to the experts interviewed by TASS, the key factors in the strengthening of the Russian currency were the tax period and rising oil prices. But the trend towards strengthening the Russian currency is unlikely to be long-term, analysts expect.
Today, the dollar exchange rate on the Russian interbank market fell below 78 rubles for the first time since May 31, 2023. In the morning, the dollar lost more than 2.5%, and the minimum value was 77.87 rubles.
Experts note that for the moment the Russian ruble continues to strengthen confidently and there are several reasons for this trend.
"Firstly, the tax period, when exporters traditionally sell more currency during this period to meet their budget obligations. This factor is now one of the key ones in favor of the ruble. Oil market: the dynamics of oil prices remains positive, which supports the trade balance," the analysts at the Cifra-Broker say.
In their opinion, the geopolitical background also has an impact.
"News about possible negotiations and the absence of new sanctions threats are perceived positively by the market. The Russian Foreign Minister announced his readiness for negotiations on June 2, and in the United States there were signals once again in favor of a diplomatic settlement," the analysts note.
According to Bogdan Zvarich, head of banking and financial markets analysis at PSB, the ruble is supported by weak demand for currencies from legal entities, as well as interest in ruble liquidity from the point of view of the possibility of placing it at high rates.
"As a result, despite the peak of tax payments passing yesterday, the national currency continues its positive dynamics," he says.
Leading analyst at FG Finam Alexander Potavin points out that the exchange rates are affected by the abolition of trade tariffs (on Thursday, the US Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump had exceeded his authority in introducing customs duties), which could improve the US economic outlook, but investors are not rushing to buy dollars yet.
"The American currency remains close to its yearly lows. The key factors that could affect its rate, in addition to Trump's protectionist policy, are the US tax reform (growing budget deficit), the geopolitical situation, the actions of the Federal Reserve, and market expectations for a reduction in interest rates," he notes.
Short-term trend
However, the trend towards strengthening the Russian currency is most likely temporary and may change in the near future, analysts believe.
Chief economist at Expert RA Anton Tabakh notes that the ruble fundamentally looks "overbought."
"All the positive factors for the ruble, including high rates and positive geopolitical expectations, are already in the price," he says.
According to Dmitry Kulikov, Senior Director of the Sovereign and Regional Ratings Group at ACRA, if the global energy market suffers from growing barriers to international trade, and if interest rates in the Russian economy begin to decline in the near future, it is very likely that the ruble will weaken relative to current levels.
"In such conditions, the volume of export revenue will decrease, demand for imports will increase, incentives to save in rubles will decrease, which, in my opinion, will lead to the ruble/dollar returning to levels above 90, closer to 95-100," Kulikov believes.
Bogdan Zvarich from PSB notes that the dollar's retreat below 79 rubles is estimated as temporary, since there are no fundamental factors for fixing the currency below the specified levels for a long time.
"We expect that in the second half of the year the ruble may come under pressure, which will be facilitated by the activation of imports and the easing of monetary policy. By the end of the year, under this scenario, we see risks of the yuan rising above 13 rubles, and the dollar above 95 rubles," he said.