MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. Ukraine settlement talks shift to Geneva to address broader political issues; Rubio signaled continued US strategic commitment to Europe despite disagreements; and Russia is exploring a free trade deal between the EAEU and MERCOSUR. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Ukraine negotiations in Geneva may test broader settlement framework
Trilateral negotiations on resolving the conflict are moving to Geneva. There, the parties may address new dimensions of a future settlement, including the prospect of external governance in Ukraine to facilitate holding elections. Moscow’s proposal to suspend strikes during the voting period remains on the table. At the same time, Kiev is insisting on expanded security guarantees from the United States, accusing Washington of providing insufficient support. In the run-up to the talks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have escalated the situation by launching large-scale strikes against civilian infrastructure, Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told Izvestia. Nevertheless, according to expert assessments, the conflict in Ukraine could conclude as early as 2026. However, establishing a new security architecture in Europe will require significantly more time.
The Ukrainian conflict could end in 2026-2027, former US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker told Izvestia. In his view, the United States needs to increase pressure on Russia, something Trump is unwilling to do, which could cause the settlement process to carry over into the following year.
Geneva may play a meaningful role in the settlement process, as the OSCE, albeit in a controversial capacity, was involved in monitoring the implementation of the Minsk agreements, expert at the Valdai Club Andrey Kortunov told Izvestia. Holding negotiations in Geneva also reflects Russia’s readiness for dialogue with Europe as a whole, he believes.
If settlement is understood as the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, there is a possibility that they could be halted as early as 2026, Kortunov said. However, if the objective is to create a durable, reliable, and inclusive security system on the European continent, this will require considerably more time and a different composition of participants, the expert added.
The range of issues at the Geneva negotiations will be broader than at the meetings in the UAE, a conclusion that follows from the revised composition of the Russian delegation, Kortunov emphasized.
"Primarily technical and military matters were discussed in the Emirates, and in Geneva more general political topics are likely to be addressed," the expert noted. "It can be assumed that Russia’s demands that have already been articulated will receive further elaboration: issues of territory, Ukraine’s post-war status, and the Russian language," he added.
Vedomosti: Munich speech underscores US resolve to retain Europe within its orbit
Despite existing disagreements, Europe and the United States remain part of a single Western civilization, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared on February 14 during his address at the 62nd Munich Security Conference. The chief US diplomat, who is simultaneously serving as Acting National Security Advisor to the President, emphasized that Washington’s criticism is not aimed at dismantling its alliance with Europe but, on the contrary, at strengthening and renewing it. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti argue that Rubio’s speech reflects continuity in the Trump administration’s strategic course while firmly keeping Europe within Washington’s sphere of influence.
The substance of Rubio’s speech in Munich did not differ significantly from the core narratives articulated by JD Vance, the difference lay primarily in tone, which was more polished and diplomatic in the secretary of state’s delivery, research fellow at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University Vladimir Pavlov told Vedomosti. According to him, the Trump administration seeks to redirect trade flows — shifting away from heavy imports toward expanding American exports — while consolidating US dominance in artificial intelligence (AI) and information technology.
Against this backdrop, calls to return to democracy and Christian morality, as well as demands that Europe pay for its own defense, represent not only an attempt by Washington to reduce its financial burden but also an effort to recast the European Union (EU) as a more engaged partner on foreign policy issues. Pavlov believes this stems from Washington’s recognition of the limits of its unilateral influence and its ability to independently shape global developments.
Rubio’s address also shows that the United States does not intend to abandon Europe, head of the Department of Domestic Political Studies at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vadim Kozlov said. The expert argues that Rubio sought to tone down the ideological overtones that Vance had injected into US foreign policy during last year’s conference and instead focus on key priorities: less emphasis on the climate agenda, rejection of what the White House views as globalist practices, and a reassessment of immigration policy.
"The United States is still not prepared to lose Europe strategically, considering it its sphere of influence. The US does not plan a full withdrawal from Europe, as follows from Rubio’s speech," the expert stressed.
Izvestia: Russia explores free trade deal with MERCOSUR
The Eurasian Economic Union’s (EAEU) plans extend far beyond its immediate region. One of the most promising directions today is Latin America, and Russia, as a member of the EAEU, is prepared to discuss the establishment of a free trade zone with the region’s largest integration bloc MERCOSUR, Izvestia has learned. The ambitious project may not only improve conditions for promoting Russian goods in the vast Latin American market but also reduce prices for imported goods for residents of all EAEU member states. However, experts caution about serious logistical barriers and pressure from the United States on countries in the region.
Russia is assessing the potential prospects for negotiations with the region’s largest economic bloc — MERCOSUR (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay), Alexey Overchuk told Izvestia.
"On the one hand, it is necessary to analyze how mutually beneficial this would be. On the other hand, there is a certain negotiating capacity that is currently directed toward other countries. But we are always open to such dialogue and, of course, interested in expanding opportunities for the EAEU economies," he said.
Implementing such a large-scale project will not be easy. One of the main obstacles to creating a free trade zone with MERCOSUR is logistics, experts believe. Above all, the countries are separated by considerable geographical distance, which increases transportation costs. Shipping goods through European ports in the Atlantic would be complicated by sanctions, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University Viktor Kheifets told Izvestia. However, there is an alternative option: utilizing Pacific routes.
Promising areas of cooperation could include so-called value-added goods. Experts have little doubt that the creation of a free trade zone would lead to a tangible breakthrough in this direction.
"In the event of its conclusion, such an agreement would contribute to the diversification of bilateral and interregional economic ties. Even its initiation would signify a significant shift in relations between Russia and Latin America, since MERCOSUR is the largest trade actor in the region," leading researcher at the Institute of Latin American Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Andrey Pyatakov told Izvestia.
Kommersant: US may impose 133% anti-dumping duties on Russian palladium
Should the United States introduce anti-dumping duties on Russian palladium, the world’s largest producer of the metal, Nornickel, would reroute volumes to China and other countries, analysts believe. The preliminary duty rate stands at nearly 133%, with market sources suggesting that any decision could ultimately be politically motivated. At the same time, according to experts surveyed by Kommersant, while the imposition of US anti-dumping duties on Russian palladium should not materially affect Nornickel, it could lead to increased prices for the metal.
One of the initiators of the investigation, Sibanye-Stillwater — which mines platinum group metals in the United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe — announced on February 13 that, under a preliminary ruling by the US Department of Commerce, duties of 132.83% could be imposed on palladium from Russia. The rates would take effect following publication of the decision in the US Federal Register, expected in the third week of February. The duties could be finalized in June by the US International Trade Commission and the Department of Commerce.
A source familiar with the situation told Kommersant that it is too early to draw final conclusions. According to the source, market participants are discussing that dumping has not been proven and that, if adopted, the decision would be politically motivated. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), in its review, noted that US trade data does not show that Russian palladium was imported at prices significantly or consistently below market levels. At the same time, the review stated that regulators will assess losses based on production costs of palladium in Russia compared with those in the United States.
Sergey Frolov, Managing Partner at NEFT Research, believes that Nornickel would primarily be able to reroute additional palladium volumes to the Chinese market. Sales to Middle Eastern countries are also possible, he told Kommersant, as discussions there continue regarding the development of hydrogen energy. Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global, added that part of the demand could be met through traders and refiners.
Vedomosti: Russia’s urea exports rise by 11% in 2025, expected to expand further
Shipments of urea, one of Russia’s key export fertilizers, to foreign markets increased by 11% year-on-year in 2025 to 10.8 mln tons, according to statistical data provided by Metals & Mining Intelligence (MMI), reviewed by Vedomosti. In Q4 2025, urea exports totaled 2.8 mln tons (+8% year-on-year). The highest export volume of this nitrogen fertilizer was recorded in Q1, at 2.9 mln tons (+12% year-on-year). Experts anticipate Russian urea exports and production to continue growing in 2026 on the back of sustained global demand.
The increase in shipments was driven by growing demand for Russian urea in the United States, India, and Turkey, Head of the Fertilizer Market at MMI Maxim Bratchikov explained. At the same time, domestic demand dropped by 13% to 700,000 tons.
According to the agency, total fertilizer exports from Russia in 2025 rose by 11% year-on-year to 45.8 mln tons, while production increased by 3% to 65.4 mln tons. Domestic fertilizer consumption declined by 2% last year to 5.8 mln tons.
Dmitry Baranov, leading expert at Finam Management, believes that Russian urea exports could reach 11.5-11.8 mln tons this year (+6-9% compared with last year). Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Aricapital Management Company says that Russia’s urea production could reach 12 mln tons (+4%).
Experts are confident that the existing quotas on nitrogen fertilizer exports from Russia will not hinder the growth of urea shipments this year. Since domestic demand for this fertilizer is not increasing, export quotas may be expanded, they believe. In October 2025, the government extended the fertilizer export quota mechanism. The quota for nitrogen fertilizer exports (urea, ammonium nitrate, and others) from December 1, 2025, through May 31, 2026, has been set at approximately 10.6 mln tons.
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