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Bank of Russia expects slowdown of GDP growth rates starting Q2

The regulator projects that economic activity growth in 2024 will be at the level of 2.5-3.5%

MOSCOW, May 13. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia projects a slowdown of economic growth rates starting the second quarter of 2024, which is related to the mounting effect of tight monetary factors. The regulator projects that GDP growth rates will total 4.4% in Q2 after 4.6% in Q1, according to a commentary to the regulator’s midterm macroeconomic forecast.

"According to projection by the Bank of Russia, starting Q2 2024 the current GDP growth rates (quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted) will slow down influenced by the mounting effects of tight monetary factors," the document said.

High consumer and investment demand will still be the main growth driver. In particular, the Bank of Russia projects that economic activity growth in 2024 will be at the level of 2.5-3.5%. In 2025, economic growth, including under the influence of monetary policy-related decisions taken earlier, will equal 1-2%.

"Meanwhile investment demand will still grow stably, which reflects the shift in the structure of aggregated demand in the Russian economy toward an increase in the share of investment. In 2026, as interest rates go down and the economy returns to balanced growth, the contribution of consumer demand in GDP growth will increase. In the base case scenario, the Russian economy will rise by 1.5-2.5% in 2026," the Central Bank said.

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